XRP traded around the $1.50 region on Oct. 2 as whale-sized exchange withdrawals and rising derivatives activity accompanied the token's consolidation. The asset briefly moved above $1.50 during the session after closing Sept. 30 near $1.49, testing the $1.55 area intraday before giving back part of those gains. The movements came as market participants tracked exchange flow data and leveraged positioning concentrated around the $1.50 level.

Data from CryptoQuant showed that transfers above 1 million XRP had become the dominant category of exchange outflows on both Binance and Coinbase, with wallets of that size accounting for 60.8% of the XRP withdrawn from Binance on Sept. 30.

Monthly Chart: $3.66 Breakout Would Put $31.87 in Focus

Analyst Ali Martinez, who publishes as Ali Charts, said in an X post that XRP is forming an ascending triangle on the monthly timeframe, with resistance positioned near $3.66. An ascending triangle pairs horizontal resistance with a rising lower boundary, a geometry chartists conventionally associate with tightening price action as a pattern matures. The pattern has developed after XRP spent several years moving through lower price levels before advancing toward the upper boundary. In the analyst's setup, a monthly close above $3.66 would confirm the breakout, and the pattern's projected target sits near $31.87 — a level well above the current market price.

The monthly structure also shows a rising trendline extending from the lower range through the recovery that followed the 2022–2024 period. Price has since pulled back from the area above $3 and is now trading near $1.53.

Elliott Wave Map Outlines Wave 3 Levels

Analyst Dark Defender outlined on X an alternative path for XRP using Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci extension levels, a framework technical traders use to project potential objectives from a completed impulse move. The setup places Wave 1 from $0.98 to $.70, followed by a corrective Wave 2. The next stage is identified as Wave 3, with several Fibonacci levels marking potential price areas: $1.88 at the 161.8% extension, $2.90 at 200%, $4.10 at 261.8%, $7.08 at 361.8%, $10.11 at 427.2%, and $18.22 at 361.8%.

Under this structure, the $4.10 level sits above the current market price and below the $7.08 and $10.11 extension zones. The highest marked level, $18.22, remains below the $31.87 monthly-chart target identified by Martinez.

XRP Clears $1.45 as Derivatives Activity Rises

XRP has moved above the $1.45 area, which previously acted as a sell wall and aligned with a descending trendline on the four-hour timeframe. The advance has carried the price toward the $1.56 area, where additional liquidity could be tested if buying pressure persists.

Market data also points to rising speculative activity. XRP open interest on Binance increased from $553 million on Sept. 29 to about $580 million, while open interest on Hyperliquid rose from $284 million to $314 million as derivatives traders added exposure around the $1.50 area. Open interest tracks the total notional value of outstanding derivative contracts, so rising readings point to new leveraged positions being opened rather than price direction on their own, and elevated leverage can amplify moves in either direction as positions are unwound. Binance's long-to-short account ratio stood at 2.31, and the open-interest-weighted funding rate reached 0.01% — a positive funding rate means long-position holders pay those on the short side, a condition generally read as a tilt toward long-side demand.

Whale Withdrawals Intensify

The price action has been accompanied by an increase in whale withdrawals. Wallets holding more than 1 million XRP accounted for 60.8% of Binance withdrawals on Sept. 30, up from 45% in mid-August. On Coinbase, the same category reached 48.7% on Sept. 30, compared with 37% in late August. The figures mark an increase in the share of large transfers over the preceding six weeks. Withdrawal patterns of this kind are widely watched because tokens moved off an exchange can signal self-custody or accumulation, reducing the balances immediately available to sell on the venue, although they can also reflect internal wallet management rather than a directional bet.

Key Levels to Watch

Several technical levels now separate the current price from the longer-term targets. The first area is $1.51, which needs to hold as support after the breakout. A move toward $1.56 would place XRP closer to the next resistance zone. These shorter-term levels frame the path between current prices and the analyst targets described above. Alongside those price levels, shifts in the whale-withdrawal share on Binance and Coinbase and the trajectory of open interest and funding rates offer checkpoints on whether the current mix of holder behavior and leverage is persisting.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical targets, analyst projections and derivatives indicators do not guarantee future price performance.

Source: The Market Periodical