XRP Falls as Senate Shelves Clarity Act Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

$XRP is trading at $1.06, down nearly 8% over the past week.

The move comes as the U.S. Senate shelved the Clarity Act before its August recess and global markets prepared for the Federal Reserve’s July 29 rate decision.

$XRP’s technical picture is broadly bearish, with a confirmed death cross, RSI at 40.9, negative Squeeze momentum, and a composite score of -63%. The only notable technical support is that the token is deeply oversold.

The broader macro backdrop has also turned increasingly unfavorable for crypto markets, with traders watching not just the Fed decision itself but also the language around inflation, growth, and the path of policy into late summer. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, at only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75%. However, CME FedWatch put the odds of a hike near 38% as recently as last weekend, the highest of this cycle. Even a hawkish hold could pressure risk assets. Bitcoin is trading near $63,400–$64,000, well below its June highs around $80,000, and altcoins are bearing much of the decline.

$XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by the founders of payments company Ripple, briefly benefited from optimism earlier this month. As Decrypt reported on July 21, the token rose 3.25% to $1.1485 after reports said President Donald Trump had agreed to the Clarity Act’s long-stalled ethics provision, briefly lifting Senate passage odds on Polymarket to 43%. That optimism lasted about a week.

On Monday, the Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act in order to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations. The chamber’s August recess begins around August 7, leaving only a narrow window for the legislation to advance this year. If that window closes, the next opportunity may not arrive until 2027, leaving crypto firms and market participants without the near-term regulatory clarity they had been hoping for.

For $XRP, the implications are significant. The Clarity Act would codify its commodity classification into law, providing the legal foundation that institutional custodians, banks, and ETF issuers would need to build products around it. Standard Chartered’s conditional $8 $XRP target, which depends on full Senate passage and $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows, remains hypothetical without the bill.

$XRP price: What the charts say

$XRP is trading at $1.0641 on Binance, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $65 billion. Over the past 24 hours, the token has ranged between a low of $1.0450 and a high of $1.0679. XRP peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has since remained in a sustained descending channel, recording lower highs and lower lows for months.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 11.2, one of the weakest readings $XRP has posted all summer. ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, regardless of direction. Readings below 25 indicate that no confirmed trend is in place, while sub-20 levels are typically associated with choppy, directionless trading where false breakouts and stop hunts are common.

As Decrypt noted on July 16, when the indicator stood at 13.3, $XRP has spent much of July in this trendless environment. One modestly constructive sign is that the directional indicator is beginning to rotate from DI- dominance toward DI+, suggesting some bullish pressure may be building.

The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, reinforce the broader downtrend. The 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA in what traders call a death cross. When the shorter average sits below the longer one, the medium-term trend remains pointed lower, even if short-term rebounds appear. That alignment has been in place since $XRP’s decline from the $3.65 all-time high, and there is still no sign that the two averages are converging.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is currently 40.9. RSI is a momentum gauge that ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 considered overbought and readings below 30 considered oversold. At 40.9, $XRP remains in bearish territory, below the neutral 50 line, but has not yet reached the extreme levels that often attract aggressive dip buyers.

From a Fibonacci perspective, the current bearish leg runs from $1.1646 down to $1.0450. Below that level, the next support sits at $1.0125, followed by $0.9711.

What happens next

Two developments will likely shape $XRP’s next move. If Fed Chair Warsh keeps rates unchanged and delivers a dovish message, or hints at possible September cuts, crypto markets could see a relief rebound and $XRP may test the Fibonacci golden zone between $1.10 and $1.12. If the statement is hawkish or includes a dissenting vote, the sell-off could extend toward $1.01 and then the $0.97 area.

The Clarity Act is the larger long-term factor. The Senate recess begins August 7, and if a floor vote does not occur before then, $XRP’s main institutional catalyst would likely be pushed back until at least late 2026, and possibly longer given the subsequent midterm election calendar.

The current technical setup suggests patience rather than urgency. A market this trendless, with ADX at 11.2, negative Squeeze momentum, and a death cross still intact, can remain compressed longer than many traders expect before it resolves. Oversold readings could support a short-term bounce, but without a macro catalyst or a legislative breakthrough, such a move may prove more likely to attract selling than to establish a new trend.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.