XRP traded near $1.30 on October 20 as market attention turned to whether the recent breakout can hold after US spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows turned negative, with institutional forecasts for 2027 also in focus. The price has recovered from recent lows after breaking above a descending trendline that had capped it since July 2025. The breakout on the weekly chart pushed XRP toward $1.60, though buyers have struggled to hold that level since. Selling pressure persists as investors weigh weaker ETF demand, and XRP remains well below its 2025 peak near $3.50.

US Spot XRP ETFs Post First Weekly Outflow

US spot XRP ETFs posted approximately $1.84 million in net withdrawals last week, marking their first weekly net outflow after 13 consecutive weeks of inflows. The pullback is small relative to cumulative inflows, which still total about $1.81 billion. Weekly flow figures are widely tracked as a read on institutional demand for the funds, which is why even a modest reversal tends to draw scrutiny during a consolidation.

On-Chain Volume Surges Near $1.25 Support

Analyst Ali Charts, who publishes on X under the handle @alicharts, said the bottom may be in. He pointed to a jump in XRP Ledger transaction volume to $49.70 billion as prices held near the $1.25 support level. On-chain transfer volume is one of the metrics analysts use to assess whether a price level is drawing genuine activity, though a single spike does not by itself establish a trend.

XRP: THE BOTTOM IS IN Transaction volume on the $XRP Ledger exploded last night as prices hovered around the $1.25 support. The total dollar value of coins transferred on-chain skyrocketed to $49.70 billion, coinciding with the rebound that is now taking place. This surge in… pic.twitter.com/fQTEvKsTKk

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 19, 2026

The post is available on X.

He argued that the surge in on-chain transfers around such a key support level suggests $1.25 could mark the low. If the level holds, he sees XRP on track for a rally toward $2.

Ripple Wallet Partnership and Institutional Custody

Ripple has also partnered with Stripe-owned Privy to introduce embedded XRP Ledger wallets, enabling applications to handle transfers involving XRP and Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin. Embedded wallets have become a common integration pattern among fintech and crypto infrastructure firms looking to reduce onboarding friction in consumer applications. Stablecoin usage does not always translate into higher XRP prices, but the partnership could expand activity across the network.

On October 12, Standard Chartered launched custody services for RLUSD on the XRP Ledger, working with Ripple and LMAX Group to support institutional collateral arrangements. Custody offerings of this kind let institutions hold digital assets through professional infrastructure rather than managing keys themselves, a common requirement for corporate and fund participation.

2027 Price Forecasts

Attention is turning to next year. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick forecasts $7 for XRP by the end of 2027. A March 2026 report placed his targets at $2.80 for 2026 and $12.60 for 2028, representing a cut to his earlier near-term expectations. These figures come from reports of the bank's research and have not been verified against the original note. Research targets of this kind reflect analyst assumptions rather than guarantees, as the revision to Kendrick's own numbers illustrates.

Reaching $7 would require a gain of roughly 438% from current levels. The bullish case outlined in the analysis spans $4.00 to $7.00, while the base case ranges from $1.80 to $3.00. The bearish case runs from $0.80 to $1.20, tied to a break below $1.00.

Chart Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart appears steady rather than euphoric. XRP cleared the trendline and pushed to $1.60 before running out of momentum. The weekly relative strength index (RSI) stands at 47.19, just under neutral, while the MACD histogram is shrinking even though the bullish crossover remains in place.

Support sits between $1.25 and $1.30, with $1.00 located below. Resistance lies in the $1.45 to $1.60. Key levels to watch are whether XRP holds $1.25 and whether a weekly close above $1.60 would put $2.00 in play. Upcoming weekly ETF flow reports and on-chain activity around those levels will provide the next data points in the discussion between bulls and bears.