XRP Nears Wave 2 Correction Completion, Elliott Wave Analysis Points to $43 Target

$XRP appears to be approaching the end of its ongoing Wave 2 correction, according to Elliott Wave analysis, with the projected third wave potentially targeting double-digit price levels.

The cryptocurrency has faced sustained downward pressure throughout 2026, declining approximately 43% since the start of the year. However, chart data now suggests the current retreat may be close to running its course. Market analyst EGRAG has identified an Elliott Wave pattern in which the present pullback corresponds to Wave 2. Should this interpretation hold, the subsequent impulsive Wave 3 could drive prices toward $43.83.

Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, attempts to model market cycles through recurring wave patterns — impulsive waves that move in the direction of the primary trend and corrective waves that move against it. The framework assigns numbers to impulse waves (1, 3, 5) and letters to corrective waves (A, B, C), with Wave 3 traditionally considered the longest and strongest. The theory is widely followed in crypto technical analysis, though its interpretive nature means practitioners can arrive at differing counts for the same asset.

Bullish Divergence Emerges on Three-Day Chart

The three-day $XRP chart reveals a notable bullish divergence. While $XRP has continued to register lower lows in price, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a higher low — a pattern that typically indicates waning selling pressure even as prices remain depressed.

RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings below 30 are generally associated with oversold conditions, while readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions. When RSI diverges from price — rising while price falls — it can signal that the prevailing trend is losing momentum, though divergences can persist for extended periods before any reversal materializes.

This divergence signals weakening downside momentum, meaning the rate of decline has begun to decelerate despite $XRP still trading within its broader corrective structure. Bullish divergences frequently materialize near significant market bottoms, which the chart cites as a primary reason the current downtrend could be approaching its conclusion.

Elliott Wave Structure: Wave 2 Nearing Completion

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the chart supports the interpretation that $XRP is close to finishing its Wave 2 correction. If confirmed, the current pullback would transition into the next impulsive phase of the cycle.

However, Wave 3 has not yet been formally confirmed. $XRP must first break out of its corrective pattern and reclaim a major resistance cluster before the next bullish wave can be considered underway. Until such confirmation occurs, the bullish divergence functions only as a preliminary indicator rather than definitive proof of a trend reversal.

While confirmation remains pending, the chart identifies several critical support levels that could define the eventual bottom. The primary support zone ranges between $1.00 and $0.95. A secondary level sits at $0.75, and a deeper structural support area lies between $0.60 and $0.52 should the decline extend further.

These levels carry added significance given XRP's history of sharp drawdowns followed by extended consolidation phases. The asset's all-time high of $3.84 was set in January 2018, and it spent years below $1.00 before breaking out again in late 2024.

Key Resistance Levels Remain

The bullish scenario depends on $XRP reclaiming successive price levels. According to the chart, sustained closes between $1.30 and $1.60 would offer the first indication that buyers are regaining control. Beyond that, $XRP would need to establish closes above $1.96 and subsequently clear the $3.00 to $3.60 resistance zone — a region that encompasses XRP's 2018 all-time high and has historically acted as a major pivot point.

The chart identifies a breakout above the previous Wave 1 high as the strongest confirmation that Wave 3 has commenced. Each reclaimed resistance level would incrementally strengthen the bullish case. Until $XRP moves decisively above these thresholds, the pattern remains a developing scenario rather than a confirmed breakout.

Wave 3 Projection: $43.83

The projected upside is derived from the magnitude of the prior impulsive move. Wave 1 produced gains of approximately 1,200%. Since Elliott Wave Theory typically characterizes Wave 3 as the most powerful leg of the cycle, $XRP could experience a substantially larger advance during the next phase.

Specifically, Wave 3 could generate gains ranging from 1,900% to 2,000% — equivalent to roughly a 20-fold increase from the anticipated bottoming region. Based on that projection, the long-term price targets stand at $6.42, $13.37, $22.55, $29.63, and ultimately $43.83.

These targets would represent a dramatic increase from XRP's current trading range and would place the asset's market capitalization well into the hundreds of billions of dollars, a level that would require substantial shifts in adoption and market structure. Elliott Wave projections are inherently forward-looking estimates based on pattern extension ratios, and actual outcomes depend on whether the identified wave count proves correct.

Despite these ambitious targets, price confirmation remains the critical factor. The bullish divergence suggests $XRP may be forming a bottom, but the asset must still break above its corrective structure before Wave 3 can be validated.