XRP dropped 2.05% over 24 hours to $1.02, making it the only token among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization to close in the red. Every other major coin finished green on the same period.

The U.S. Senate departed Washington for its August recess without holding a vote on the Clarity Act, pushing the market-structure legislation to September at the earliest. The broader crypto market largely shrugged off the delay—except XRP, which posted a 3% decline over the week, the weakest performance among major tokens by a wide margin.

While Bitcoin traded flat amid its own headwinds and Dogecoin gained 1.38% to lead the top 10, XRP's reaction underscored how much of its 2025–2026 rally thesis depends on U.S. lawmakers finally defining the token's regulatory status. Few major cryptocurrencies carry as much direct exposure to legislative outcomes as XRP, whose price history has tracked the arc of SEC enforcement actions and court rulings more closely than typical market cycles.

Legislative Stakes for XRP

The Clarity Act would sort cryptocurrencies into securities and commodities. According to drafts previously reported by Decrypt, the bill would reclassify XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin as non-securities. That would place them under the regulatory purview of the CFTC, widely viewed by crypto industry observers as the more favorable option compared to the historically tougher SEC.

For Ripple—the company whose co-founder created XRP—the legislation represents the ultimate resolution that years of litigation were aimed at achieving: a definitive federal answer to the SEC's long-running fight over whether XRP was an unregistered security. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging XRP was an unregistered security—a case that triggered delistings from major U.S. exchanges and suppressed the token's price for years. Ripple agreed to pay $50 million to settle its cross-appeal with the SEC, but a federal statute would carry more weight than a court settlement. A law would settle the question simultaneously for every exchange, custodian, and regulator—removing the patchwork of court rulings and enforcement actions that have governed XRP's status on a case-by-case basis.

Without that legislative clarity, XRP remains in legal limbo—and current price action appears to reflect that uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

XRP is trading at $1.028, representing a market cap of approximately $64 billion, down 0.71% on the day. A red candle has kept the price pinned just above the $1.00 psychological floor. This marks the second-lowest daily print since early 2024, above only the $0.9153 low recorded last month.

The token has been in a strong bearish trend since reaching $3 per coin in 2025. The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA—a formation known as a death cross. XRP's current price sits below both moving averages, meaning no average is acting as support underneath.

Key technical indicators paint a mixed but generally bearish picture:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.9 on a 0–100 scale. Below 30 is considered oversold, so momentum remains bearish with room for further downside before buyers typically intervene.
• ADX (Average Directional Index): 11.9. Readings below 20 indicate the move lacks conviction and choppy trading is common. However, the Squeeze Momentum indicator is off, meaning volatility is expanding rather than coiling.

Bull case: A daily close above $1.10—the lower Fibonacci zone and first real resistance—followed by a hold at the $1.13 point of control would signal the floor is holding. Progress on the Clarity Act, though unlikely before September, could also spark bullish interest.

Bear case: A break below $1.00 opens the path to $0.9153, the lowest level since 2024. A daily close at that level would confirm the downtrend and erase the post-2024 recovery. Given the current bearish trend, this is a likely scenario.

Prediction Market Sentiment

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are currently pricing in 77% odds that XRP stays above $1.00 at least through the weekend.

For now, $1.00 remains the critical threshold. Above it, XRP may appear cheap and oversold. Below it, the charts suggest further downside ahead. With the Senate not returning until after Labor Day, the next plausible catalyst for a regulatory-driven move is weeks away.