XRP has slipped since July 21 but remains near $1.13, forming what technical traders describe as a cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart. The key breakout level is $1.15, while the pattern target cited in the setup is $1.21.

The chart structure remains constructive, but the institutional flow data is less supportive. According to CoinGlass, monthly inflows into spot XRP ETF products have fallen sharply from a peak of $131.94 million in May to $12.43 million in July, the weakest month on record in the cited data. The flows remain net positive, but the pace of capital entering the products has slowed substantially.

XRP’s Cup-and-Handle Structure

Since early July, XRP has developed a cup-and-handle formation on the daily chart. In this structure, the cup reflects a gradual recovery from selling pressure, while the handle represents the consolidation phase that has taken shape since July 21.

The bullish interpretation of the setup is supported by declining sell volume as the price drifts lower, suggesting consolidation rather than a new wave of selling. The main resistance level is $1.15, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

A daily close above $1.15 would break the handle and bring the cup neckline at $1.16 into focus. From there, the next cited levels are $1.18 and $1.21 as potential targets for XRP.

However, XRP has previously failed to sustain cup formations. A single candle wick above $1.15 would not be enough to confirm the move; the setup requires a confirmed daily close above that level. That distinction matters because technical patterns are typically treated as unconfirmed until price closes beyond resistance, reducing the risk of relying on brief intraday moves.

$XRP

Say what you want, but this entire setup looks insane!

Sweep the lows or not…

A major move is coming. pic.twitter.com/MJFD9UJNzh

— Jim Knox (@Jim_Knox589) July 23, 2026

https://x.com/Jim_Knox589/status/2080223192866529450?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

XRP ETF Inflows Remain Positive but Are Declining

ETF inflows for XRP have been net positive since launch, but monthly totals have weakened. CoinGlass data shows inflows of $81.59 million in April, followed by a peak of $131.94 million in May. Inflows then dropped to $59.46 million in June and declined further to $12.43 million in July.

The downward trend indicates that institutional demand for XRP products has softened. ETF inflows are commonly watched as a measure of professional buyer interest because spot products can provide regulated exposure without requiring investors to custody tokens directly, making the data relevant as XRP approaches a possible breakout level.

A further decline in these flows could affect XRP’s price action, particularly if the token remains near resistance. Similar patterns of reduced institutional demand have also been observed in Bitcoin ETF products, according to the source article.

Source: CoinGlass

Glassnode Hodler Metric Shows Long-Term Holder Activity

The Hodler Net Position Change metric from Glassnode tracks whether long-term XRP holders are adding to or reducing their positions. It is an on-chain measure of accumulation or distribution among wallets that have held XRP for extended periods, a cohort typically less associated with short-term trading activity.

The recent history of the metric is notable because it previously coincided with a price decline. On June 22, Hodler Net Position Change reached one of its highest readings. From that point, it fell steadily through July 1.

During the same period, XRP corrected from $1.13 to $1.05, a 7% move. The decline affected traders who were focused on the chart setup rather than the on-chain signal. After long-term holders began adding again, the price recovered.

Since July 19, the metric has turned lower once more. It has eased from approximately 231 million XRP to roughly 226 million XRP, according to Glassnode data cited in the BeInCrypto analysis. The similarity to the June pattern makes the metric a relevant factor to monitor alongside the chart setup, although on-chain holder data is best read together with price, volume, and flow data rather than as a standalone signal.

Three Possible Paths for XRP

Based on the chart structure and institutional flow data, the source article outlines three possible scenarios for XRP price action.

Bull case: XRP closes above $1.15, confirming a cup-and-handle breakout. If $1.16 is breached, the $1.21 target could be reached, but stable ETF inflows would be needed to help maintain gains.

Base case: XRP trades sideways between $1.12 and $1.15 while Hodler Net Position Change declines and ETF inflows remain weak. In this scenario, the cup-and-handle pattern remains valid but unconfirmed as the market waits for a broader catalyst.

Bear case: A sharper decline in Hodler metrics pushes XRP below $1.13, exposing support at $1.12 and $1.09. A break below $1.05 would invalidate the pattern and shift attention to broader support levels. This scenario is consistent with the current trend in ETF flows.

Together, the scenarios leave traders watching whether price can confirm the $1.15 breakout while ETF inflows and long-term holder activity stabilize. Without that confirmation, the current setup remains a developing technical structure rather than a completed breakout.

Source: TradingView