Market analyst Ali Charts has warned that XRP could drop to $0.98 if whales continue selling their holdings. The warning was laid out in a five-part thread posted on X, in which the analyst combined on-chain holder data with a price channel pattern that has been developing since August. The charts attached to the second and third posts in the thread were provided by Santiment Intelligence, an on-chain analytics platform that tracks wallet activity and exchange balances.

The alert follows a decline in the number of wallets belonging to some of the largest holders on the XRP Ledger, alongside a rise in the amount of XRP held on cryptocurrency exchanges — two developments the analyst presented as early evidence of building selling pressure.

As of this writing, XRP trades at $1.29, up 0.87% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Trading volume during that period reached $1,327,287,645. The token's seven-day gain stands at 0.09%. The analyst also pointed to a key support level that could determine the token's next move.

Whale Wallets Shrink as Exchange Supply Grows

The first post of the thread states directly that XRP will drop to $0.98 if whales keep selling. The posts that follow back that claim with on-chain data and a chart pattern.

The second post focuses on the largest holders on the XRP Ledger, the blockchain that settles XRP transactions. According to the analyst, some of these whales appear to be reducing their exposure. Santiment data shows that the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. At the token's current price, a holding in that equals roughly $12.9 million to $129 million per wallet. Size-banded wallet counts like this one are a standard tool in on-chain analysis, offering a view of how much of a token's supply sits with its largest holders. The post read in full:

2/5 Some of the largest whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure. The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million $XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/xgh8WVtJrD

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026

The third post turns to exchange balances. Based on the same Santiment figures, XRP held on exchanges rose from 11.003 billion to around 11.05 billion tokens, and the balance has stayed elevated over the past week. The rise amounts to roughly 50 million additional XRP sitting on trading platforms.

Ali Charts noted that continued transfers by large holders could add to the token's available supply. As a result, selling pressure may grow if the trend continues. Taken together, the shrinking wallet count and the rising exchange balances form the on-chain half of the analyst's bearish thesis.

Channel Support at $1.26 Shapes the $0.98 Target

The technical case rests on a channel that XRP has formed since August. Channels of this type connect a series of price highs and lows, framing the token's trading range over time. Within that structure, the analyst is watching $1.26, which marks the lower boundary of the channel. A break below this level would activate the bearish scenario.

In that scenario, XRP could first move toward $1.11, a level about 14% below today's price. From there, the channel pattern ultimately points to $0.98, a target that sits about 22% below $1.26. In other words, XRP could drop to $0.98 only if support at $1.26 fails.

The analyst summarizes the thesis in three points: fewer large-holder wallets, elevated exchange balances, and a break below $1.26. These three factors form the core of the bearish case. The first two conditions already appear in the data; the price break has not yet occurred.

At present, XRP trades above that support at $1.29, placing the price about 2.4% above the $1.26 line. New Santiment readings on the wallet count and exchange balances would show whether the two on-chain conditions persist, while $1.26 remains the level the analyst has identified as the scenario's trigger. Until that level gives way, the analyst's $0.98 projection remains a conditional scenario rather than an active forecast.