XRP continues to lag behind the broader cryptocurrency market, weighed down by a persistent technical pattern and diminishing expectations for the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act.

The token created by the founders of payments company Ripple has spent recent weeks rising less than peers during market gains and falling harder during sell-offs. While the overall crypto market has traded in a flat, choppy range, XRP has consistently ranked among the weakest performers in the top ten by market capitalization.

A key driver of the underperformance appears to be the delay of the long-awaited Clarity Act. The legislation, if enacted, would establish the first formal legal framework for digital assets in the United States and formally classify XRP as a digital commodity. That classification would remove the regulatory ambiguity that has suppressed institutional demand for the token for years—an overhang that dates to the Securities and Exchange Commission's December 2020 lawsuit against Ripple, which alleged XRP was an unregistered security and effectively delisted the token from major U.S. exchanges for extended periods.

For XRP, the stakes are higher than for more established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. While a federal judge ruled in July 2023 that XRP sold on public exchanges was not a security, questions around institutional sales and ongoing SEC appeals have left the token in a partial regulatory no-man's-land. The Clarity Act's passage would carry direct implications for resolving that residual ambiguity once and for all.

Senate Stalemate

The Senate was unable to hold a vote on the bill before the August recess, effectively extinguishing remaining hopes for passage in 2025. Majority Leader John Thune did, however, file cloture on the bill before lawmakers departed, locking in a procedural vote for September 15.

The bill still requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Democrats holding out, analysts describe its prospects for 2026 as a long shot. The gridlock reflects a broader partisan divide over crypto regulation: Republicans have largely coalesced around the Clarity Act's commodity-first framework, while key Democrats have pushed for stronger consumer protections and conflict-of-interest provisions—an especially charged debate given President Trump's family ties to crypto ventures including World Liberty Financial and a Trump family–backed stablecoin.

That marks a sharp reversal from late July, when reports emerged that President Donald Trump would accept the bill's stalled ethics provision. That development sent Polymarket odds of passage from 32% to 43% and triggered a broad market rally.

Market Performance

The cooling sentiment is visible in the data. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, XRP was the worst seven-day performer with a decline of 4.96%. Over the same period, Solana gained 3.64% and Bitcoin rose 1.17%. XRP also slipped 1.24% on the day against a market that was largely flat.

XRP is currently trading at $1.0282 with a market capitalization of approximately $64 billion, down 0.17% on the day. It remains the weakest top-ten performer over the past week and is hovering just above the $1.0128 swing low.

Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, XRP has recorded a series of lower highs and lower lows for several weeks, declining from the late-June region near $1.30 to current levels. A brief rally on July 21—tied to optimism around the Clarity Act—pushed the price to $1.15 before failing and reversing sharply. That pattern is consistent with what traders describe as a bull trap rather than a genuine trend reversal.

The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) remains below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), a formation known as a death cross. This configuration signals that the medium-term trajectory continues to point downward. Bulls would need a daily close back above the EMA cloud to shift the structure, which would require a move of at least 8% from current levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 38.2, placing XRP below the neutral 50 line and in bearish territory, though not yet in the oversold zone below 30 that typically attracts bargain hunters.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is inactive, meaning there is no volatility compression building that would signal an imminent upward breakout. With momentum negative and no squeeze loading, the setup does not suggest an imminent reversal to the upside.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 14.6. Readings below 20 indicate a directionless, choppy market prone to false breakouts and stop hunts. While the trend lacks conviction, directional indicators tilt bearish, with DI- above DI+, aligning with the death cross rather than contradicting it.

Key Price Levels

For the bullish scenario, a daily close above Fibonacci resistance at $1.0486 would signal renewed buyer interest, potentially opening a path toward the EMA cloud and the $1.0887–$1.1066 range. That scenario would require renewed legislative momentum around the Clarity Act, not merely the status quo.

On the bearish side, a loss of the $1.0128 swing low—and a break below the round $1.00 level—could trigger a measured move toward the lower $0.90 range. Both the death cross and negative Squeeze momentum point in the same direction, suggesting the path of least resistance is not currently upward.

XRP is effectively trading as a proxy for the Clarity Act, and its current price action reflects a market pricing in diminished odds of the bill's passage—closer to 21% on prediction markets. Beyond the September 15 cloture vote, the next concrete catalyst for XRP's regulatory narrative is the SEC's ongoing appeal of the 2023 Ripple ruling, though a resolution there could take many months.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.