Key Takeaways

• XRP has broken below its rising trendline.
• Price is testing support around $1.05.
• Spot and futures traders reduced exposure.
• Losing $1.05 could expose $1.01.
• The broken trendline now acts as resistance.

The move confirms the downside risk discussed in our previous XRP analysis. The first bounce did not draw enough demand to push price away from support, leaving the structure vulnerable when selling returned. That matters because a clean trend break often shifts attention from the prior pattern to the next nearby levels where buyers may try to stabilize price.

XRP Returns to a Key June Support

The $1.05 zone combines the early-June low with the area where XRP traded repeatedly between June 24 and June 30. That history makes it the clearest nearby level where buyers may attempt to slow the decline.

A sustained break below that zone would expose the June 26 bottom near $1.01. That level formed the base of the recovery that later developed into the rising triangle.

Spot and Futures Traders Are Pulling Back

Coinglass data shows that capital left both XRP spot and futures markets as the trendline failed.

Spot trading recorded a 12-hour net outflow of approximately $2.54 million, while futures saw a much larger net outflow of $24.02 million. The four-hour and eight-hour readings were also negative in both markets.

The combination is important. Spot buyers were not absorbing enough supply to defend the chart, while derivatives traders were reducing leveraged exposure rather than positioning for an immediate rebound.

The futures withdrawal was far larger, suggesting that much of the reaction came from traders cutting risk as support gave way. That can reduce future liquidation pressure, but it does not repair the chart without renewed spot demand.

The Broken Trendline Is Now Resistance

XRP must recover the former triangle support before the short-term structure can improve. The rising line now sits close to the 50-day simple moving average near $1.1101, creating a difficult resistance area. In practical terms, that puts the burden on buyers to reclaim both the broken pattern and a widely watched moving average before momentum can improve.

A move back above both levels would indicate that the breakdown failed and would return XRP to its previous range. Until then, rebounds toward that area may attract sellers.

The broader risk-off mood ahead of rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan also remains relevant. A change in Japanese rates could force investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, positions built by borrowing cheaply in Japan to buy higher-yielding assets, which can trigger selling across crypto. Even so, XRP’s immediate weakness may be better explained by its broken chart structure and the outflows from its spot and futures markets.

Holding $1.05 could produce a relief bounce, but XRP would remain technically weak below the broken trendline and the 50-day SMA.

A daily close below current support would bring $1.01 into focus. A recovery above the former triangle boundary would be the first sign that buyers are beginning to repair the breakdown.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Technical levels and market-flow data do not guarantee future price movements.

Methodology: XRP price levels and technical structure are based on the XRP/USD daily chart from TradingView using Coinbase data. Spot and futures flow figures come from Coinglass.