XRP has moved above the descending channel boundaries that contained its decline on both the daily and weekly timeframes, trading near $1.41 at the time of writing. The break interrupts a pattern of repeated failures beneath the channel ceiling, but it does not by itself confirm a broader trend reversal, according to a September 9 technical analysis published by Coindoo.

Confirmation, the analysis notes, comes in two stages. Holding a retest of the former channel ceiling would validate the immediate breakout, while reclaiming the weekly moving averages would be required to establish a wider trend reversal.

The First Test Sits at the Broken Channel Boundary

The initial test arrives if XRP returns to the broken channel boundary. A successful hold there could turn previous resistance into support, while a close back inside the channel would leave the move vulnerable to being treated as a failed breakout.

Weekly Moving Averages Still Favor the Bearish Case

XRP remains below its 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages, leaving two zones of dynamic resistance above the current price. These averages track weekly closing prices over extended periods and are widely used as longer-term trend markers.

The 50-week average has also crossed below the 100-week average. The crossover shows that the average closing price over the latest 50 weeks has fallen below the 100-week average, confirming that the more recent trend has been weaker. It remains, however, a lagging record of the decline rather than a prediction of XRP's next move.

RSI Shows Selling Momentum Weakened

XRP printed a lower price low during the decline, while the weekly Relative Strength Index formed a higher low. This bullish divergence indicates that selling momentum weakened into the later low, although price still needs to hold the channel breakout before the signal gains full technical confirmation.

The Daily Chart Puts $1.42 First

A daily close above $1.42 would clear the immediate barrier and bring the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $1.5299 into focus. Beyond that level, XRP would face $1.70, where its August rally ended. A daily close followed by a successful retest would carry more weight than another brief move through the level.

$1.33 Is the First Major Downside Test

If XRP reverses from $1.42, the 0.5 retracement near $1.33 becomes the first major support. A hold there would keep the token above the midpoint of its July-to-August advance.

A close below $1.33 would expose the 0.618 retracement near $1.25, and the decline would become more damaging if it also carried XRP back inside the descending channel.

ETF Demand Remains Positive but Has Slowed

SoSoValue data showed approximately $18.96 million in net inflows for U.S. spot XRP ETFs during the week ending September 4, down from $110.49 million in the previous week. The products subsequently recorded about $1.55 million on September 8.

The flows remain positive, but their smaller size means ETF demand is providing less support than it did before the move to $1.70. A renewed increase in inflows alongside a break above $1.42 would offer stronger evidence that fund buying is backing the recovery.

The XRPL Fix Would Be a Secondary Catalyst

The XRP Ledger could activate its fixCleanup3_3_0 amendment around September 11 if validator support remains above the required threshold. As detailed in a prior Coindoo report on the approaching XRPL fix, the amendment addresses transaction-handling issues affecting vaults, automated market makers and permissioned trading.

Successful activation could improve the reliability of existing infrastructure, but it would not introduce a new XRP use case or create automatic demand for the token. Any immediate price effect is therefore likely to be limited and indirect. Its practical value should be judged by whether affected applications report fewer failed or inconsistent transactions after activation.

What Confirms the XRP Move?

The evidence is mixed. XRP has broken above its daily and weekly descending channels, and the bullish RSI divergence suggests that selling momentum has weakened. On the other side of the ledger, the bearish crossover between the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, resistance above the current price and weaker ETF inflows show that the broader trend has not yet reversed.

A successful retest of the former channel ceiling would provide the first confirmation that buyers can defend the breakout. A daily close above $1.42 would strengthen that signal and expose the $1.53 area, followed by the more significant resistance near $1.70. XRP would still need to reclaim its weekly moving averages before the advance could be treated as a broader trend reversal.

Macroeconomic data could help determine the next move. This week's U.S. inflation releases are among the events that could move crypto markets, with producer-price data due on September 10 and consumer-price data on September 11. Softer inflation could support risk appetite and give XRP a better chance of holding its breakout, while stronger inflation could lift the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing pressure on XRP and other risk assets.

The data may provide the catalyst, though the chart will show whether the move holds. A return inside the descending channel would weaken the breakout, and a subsequent loss of the $1.33 support would shift attention toward $1.25 and indicate that the recent improvement has failed to produce a sustained reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Source: Coindoo (https://coindoo.com/xrp-price-breaks-its-downtrend-what-confirms-the-move/)