XRP, the native asset of the XRP Ledger, is approaching a closely watched technical threshold, with a four-hour close above $1.53 needed to confirm a potential breakout. The first upside target identified in the setup is $1.62, while broader technical projections extend toward $2.99 if the projected five-wave advance is completed.

As of October 4, XRP traded near $1.50, up about 1% over 24 hours. Data from CoinGecko, a cryptocurrency price-tracking platform, showed an intraday range of approximately $1.49 to $1.51. The token remained below resistance formed during September’s rally, leaving the immediate breakout scenario unconfirmed.

XRP briefly reached approximately $1.55 on October 2 but failed to sustain trading above $1.53. As a result, another move above that level during the trading day would not independently confirm the pattern. Buyers would need to maintain the price above the threshold through the four-hour closing period.

Breakout confirmation depends on the $1.53 level

Analyst Ali Martinez identified a contracting triangle on XRP’s four-hour chart. The pattern shows price compressing between descending resistance and rising support near the triangle’s apex. Martinez said a four-hour close above $1.53 would confirm the breakout, with $1.62 as the first upside target. From the $1.50 area, that target represents roughly 8% upside.

The distinction between a brief move above resistance and a closing breakout is significant because XRP has already traded above $1.53 without establishing sustained control. Triangle formations can resolve in either direction, meaning the narrowing range alone does not establish a bullish outcome. The four-hour closing threshold remains the defining technical signal in Martinez’s setup.

In a post on X, Martinez wrote:

XRP INCHES CLOSER TO A BIG MOVE Whales have remained relatively sidelined over the past week, with no significant change in their $XRP holdings. Meanwhile, XRP continues to consolidate inside a triangle. As price moves closer to the apex, a bigger move could be approaching. A… pic.twitter.com/TsVqgr3tJG — Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 4, 2026

Original X post: https://x.com/alicharts/status2106750655423541734?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Martinez also reported that large holders — commonly referred to as whales — had shown no significant change in their XRP positions during the previous week. Whale activity therefore remained relatively inactive while the token consolidated within the triangle.

Broader Elliott Wave structure includes $2.14-$2.99 zone

A broader chart from More Crypto Online places the potential short-term breakout within an Elliott Wave structure that began near the August low of approximately $0.985. Elliott Wave analysis is a technical analysis framework that organizes price movement into counted wave sequences, in which five-wave advances are classified as impulses and three-wave moves as corrections. The analysis characterizes the recovery from that low as potentially impulsive, but says the bullish structure would require a complete five-wave advance rather than a three-wave rebound.

Under that framework, XRP would first need to preserve support and move through several resistance levels. More Crypto Online identifies $1.67 as an important hurdle, followed by levels near $1.93 and $2.25 if the wave sequence develops. The broader Fibonacci setup — a projection method that applies Fibonacci ratios to a prior advance to derive potential target levels — places the final target zone between approximately $2.14 and $2.99.

More Crypto Online wrote on X:

$XRP remains in a pattern that allows for an upside breakout, but the price cannot yet break above the first resistance. The advance from the August low at $0.985 looks impulsive. As long as the September low holds, the door is open to the blue $2.14 – $2.99 target zone, in three… pic.twitter.com/Sj0jqJuuXv — More Crypto Online (@Morecryptoonl) October 4, 2026

Original X post: https://x.com/Morecryptoonl/status/2106746525816668219?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The same analysis previously identified $1.10 to $1.38 as key support, while $0.985 serves as the broader invalidation reference — meaning the level at which the projected wave structure would be considered invalid. These levels create a sequence of technical conditions rather than a single direct target. Each successive level depends on XRP completing the structure described by the analysts.

The immediate $1.53 trigger is therefore separate from the longer-range targets, which require additional confirmations. XRP would first need to secure a four-hour close above $1.53 and then challenge $1.62 before the higher resistance and target levels become technically relevant.

Source: https://blockonomi.com/xrp-price-nears-breakout-as-1-53-trigger-opens-path-toward-2-99/