With August now in the books, less-than-truckload carrier XPO remains on pace to meet its third-quarter guidance for a mid-single-digit tonnage increase.

XPO (NYSE: XPO) reported a 3.7% year-over-year increase in tonnage for August, as a 5.7% increase in daily shipments was partially offset by a 1.8% decline in weight per shipment, according to a Thursday news release. While the headline tonnage figure decelerated from July's 5.8% year-over-year gain, the July 2025 comparison was 400 basis points easier than August's prior-year comp.

On a two-year-stacked basis, which strips out the noise from prior-year comparisons, all volume metrics — shipments, weight per shipment and tonnage — improved in August relative to July. Two-year-stacked tonnage comps have been improving since November, with August down just 1% after a 2.9% decline in July.

On its second-quarter call, the company said July tonnage was essentially flat with June, a result that was 400 basis points better than the normal seasonal trend. The August update implies that this seasonal outperformance has continued, keeping the carrier on track to hit its third-quarter tonnage guidance of a mid-single-digit percentage increase year over year.

Weight per shipment improved on a two-year comparison, suggesting that more industrial-related freight is moving through the network.

The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.6 in August, 100 basis points below July's four-year high, though the dataset remained in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month. (A reading above 50 signals expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction.) The new orders subindex — an indicator of future activity — fell 3 points but stayed in growth mode at 53.7. Carrier tonnage typically lags the index by three months.

XPO's shifting freight mix presents a headwind to weight per shipment. The mix now includes a larger share of shipments from local accounts, or small and midsize businesses, which are typically lighter but produce better margins.

The company does not provide revenue-based metrics in its intraquarter updates, but it previously said contractual rate renewals were up by a mid-single- to high-single-digit percentage in the second quarter. It also said on the call that yield and revenue per shipment, excluding fuel, will continue to improve sequentially in the third and fourth quarters.

XPO's adjusted operating ratio outlook for the third quarter also appears intact. The carrier normally sees 200 to 250 basis points of operating ratio degradation from the second to the third quarter, which implies an OR above 82%. XPO expects to generate an OR below 81% in the quarter, suggesting at least 180 basis points of year-over-year improvement. (Operating ratio — operating expenses divided by revenue — is a core profitability measure in trucking, where lower numbers indicate better performance.)

Why it matters: XPO is one of a small number of publicly traded LTL companies, alongside carriers such as Old Dominion, Saia and ArcBest. LTL carriers consolidate freight from multiple shippers into single trailer loads, a distinct economics model from full truckload. XPO's midquarter results provide visibility into a subsegment of trucking where few public datasets exist. What to watch next: XPO's September tonnage update, which will largely complete the third-quarter volume picture, and the company's next earnings report, where guidance on tonnage, yield and operating ratio can be compared against these intraquarter trends.

This article appeared first on FreightWaves.