BEIJING/WASHINGTON — When Xi Jinping and Donald J. Trump meet in Washington this week, they will do so from very different vantage points. In the four months since the leaders of the world's two superpowers last sat down together, Xi has overseen a surge in China's trade with the world, while Trump has wrestled with falling approval ratings at home.

Analysts say that shift in fortunes has tempered expectations for the summit, with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by a costly war with Iran that has hurt both his popularity and Americans' wallets.

While thorny issues such as Taiwan may surface, the central question for the Sept. 24 meeting is whether the two leaders will signal an extension of the trade truce struck last year that averted a major shock to the global economy.

"Xi is not really looking for anything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman's agreement with Trump so that China has time to fortify itself," said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution who formerly served as China director at the US National Security Council.

Living in Xi's World

White House officials have sought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng led preparatory talks in New York on Sunday aimed at teeing up potential agreements on artificial intelligence guardrails and trade in non-sensitive products.

That modest agenda is a far cry from Trump's vow when he returned to office in 2025 to use tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was "killing" the United States. But since agreeing the truce with Xi in October of that year, his attention has been divided among myriad other foreign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes with Europe over free speech.

China has faced its own challenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a protracted property crisis, but the export juggernaut Trump sought to tame has kept roaring in what economists increasingly refer to as China Shock 2.0 — a second export surge echoing the original China Shock, the wave of cheap Chinese imports in the early 2000s that reshaped manufacturing in the United States and other advanced economies. China's global trade surplus is on pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.

US efforts to curb the cheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked, yet more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the US so far this year have grown compared to 2025.

A delegation of Chinese business leaders, potentially including some firms facing US regulatory scrutiny as they seek greater market access, is set to accompany Xi to Washington.

The Trump administration "thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, and that did not occur," said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the US-China economic relationship at Washington-based think tank CSIS. "Now this is Xi Jinping's world, and we're all living in it."

Taiwan and Trade Wins

If Xi is in the driver's seat, as analysts suggest, that will further unnerve US allies in Asia who expect the Chinese leader to push Trump to soften Washington's support for Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by Beijing.

Trump told reporters that Xi repeatedly asked him about Taiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales and Washington's resolve to defend the island. The US president described a pending $14-billion arms package for Taiwan as a "negotiating chip" with Beijing.

Some officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry he may be tempted to cash in that chip for political wins ahead of November's midterm elections, in which every House seat and about a third of the Senate will be contested and which could prove challenging for his Republican Party. Cashing it in could involve Chinese purchases of Boeing jets or farm goods, or commitments to curb the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals that have fueled the US opioid crisis.

"China-US ties have become more transactional," said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai's Fudan University who advises China's ministry. While Washington may want to prioritize trade talks, the US approach to Taiwan could be key for Beijing, he added.

"If you accommodate our concern on the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns on other issues, be it law enforcement or on purchases of US agricultural products," Wu said.

Pressure on Iran

Washington also sees Xi as uniquely able to exert pressure on Iran to bring an end to the war that has dragged Trump's approval rating to the lowest of his political career. Xi, however, has shown little inclination to do so.

Reuters reported earlier this month that Beijing is selling billions of dollars' worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasion scheme. China's foreign ministry says it is not aware of such a scheme.

US threats last month of secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran — measures that penalize third countries for trading with a sanctioned state rather than the state itself, and which Bessent called an "Economic D-Day" — appear not to have yet been wielded against Tehran's largest trading partner. Analysts say that is further evidence Trump is eager to keep relations with Xi steady as he focuses his energies elsewhere — an arrangement that also suits the Chinese leader.

"Both Xi and Trump feel it's quite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus on more pressing things," said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. "For Trump, that is Iran. For Xi, that is building out China's domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump."

Reporting by Reuters, republished by BusinessWorld.