A new Wall Street Journal analysis of the upcoming midterm elections, published Thursday, delivers what the newspaper itself describes as "tough" news for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. With fewer than 50 days left until the election, the Journal concludes that Trump's plunging approval rating has dragged down Republican prospects to the point where the midterms are almost certain to deliver a major victory for Democrats.

"Republicans' majorities in the House and Senate have cleared the way for President Trump's key policies in his second term and shielded the administration from investigations sought by Democrats," the Journal writes. "But keeping control of Congress is proving tough. As voters have soured on Trump, Democrats are favored to take back the House and have about even odds at gaining the Senate majority."

Historical precedent reinforces the Democratic outlook, the analysis notes, because "the president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections."

Senate: Democrats Within Reach of a Majority

The GOP currently controls the Senate 53-47, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority. Their main targets are Maine and North Carolina, but other states have emerged as surprisingly vulnerable as well, including Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. According to the Journal's projections, Democrats are likely to retain and win 46 seats, against a likely 48 for Republicans, with six seats rated as toss-ups. The newspaper's assessment, however, indicates that those six lean strongly toward Democrats. Reaching the 51 seats needed for the majority therefore hinges on that toss-up column: with 46 seats already in the likely column, Democrats would need to convert at least five of the six.

House: GOP Margin Seen as Unsustainable

The picture is even more bleak for Republicans in the House, where their conference currently holds a 219-214 majority. "Democrats are far more likely to win back control, according to election forecasters, despite Republicans redrawing several House districts in their favor," the Journal reports. Its numbers show Democrats likely to finish with 206 seats compared with a likely 209 for the GOP, alongside 20 toss-up seats. Those 20 uncertain districts dwarf the GOP's current five-seat margin, underscoring why forecasters view the chamber as the likelier flip. With the electoral winds at the Democrats' back, experts predict the party will easily overtake the Republican lead.

The battle for those toss-up seats, the Journal observes, mirrors the 2000-2008 election cycles, "as public support for Republicans waned following the unpopular war in Iraq and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, which eroded the GOP's popularity." The paper adds that the past 10 years have seen a notable decline in the number of toss-up elections, driven by rising political polarization and gerrymandering.

Trump Looms Over Battleground Races

The battleground opportunities that remain are proving a hard fight for Republicans largely because of one person. "The president's approval rating has fallen and stayed depressed, in large part due to the war in Iran that has raised gas and energy prices," the Journal explains. "He has insisted that GOP voters act as if he is on the ballot — but that has become a problem for some Republican candidates in competitive districts. In recent weeks, some lawmakers threw cold water on his idea for $5,000 checks, a Florida congresswoman criticized his deportations and a handful of candidates in tight House races sided with Democrats on a warowers vote."

The Journal also flags a historical trend that bodes poorly for the GOP. "In 2018, the last midterm cycle when Trump was in office, Trump's approval rating averaged in the 40s. Republicans lost their majority in the House, with Democrats netting 40 seats. However, Republicans bolstered their Senate majority, adding two seats. With the president's approval rating reaching all-time lows in recent weeks, even GOP candidates in seats once considered safely Republican are facing tough general elections." With fewer than 50 days until the election, it is that short list of contested seats — six in the Senate and 20 in the House — on which control of Congress will ultimately turn.