Republicans’ control of the Wisconsin Assembly is uncertain ahead of the Nov. 3 election, as candidates in competitive districts seek to extend the party’s 16-year streak of control. Some are distancing themselves from Republican leaders in Washington, D.C., and Wisconsin while emphasizing disagreements with their own party.

Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center, told the Wisconsin Examiner by email that the 2026 election environment is “more advantageous to Democrats than the 2024 environment was.”

One indication is President Donald Trump’s approval rating. A Marquette Law School poll released in September found that Trump’s approval had fallen to 37%, down from 40% in July, while 63% of respondents said they disapproved of his job performance. A recent Marquette poll found that 46% of Wisconsin voters said they would vote for Democrats in legislative races, compared with 42% who said they would vote for Republicans. The survey did not provide detailed information about individual districts.

“The party is all but certain to make additional gains,” Burden said of Wisconsin Democrats. “The question is whether the wave will be sufficient to put them over the top.”

Republicans hold a 54-seat majority in the 99-seat Assembly. Democrats must retain all of their current seats and gain five more to take control, a more difficult task than in the Senate, where Democrats are seeking at least two additional seats to gain a majority. Control of the chamber would determine which party sets the Assembly’s legislative agenda and committee priorities, making the outcome consequential beyond the individual contests.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) and Rep. August Tyler (R-Walworth), who leads the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, did not respond to interview requests from the Examiner. In an interview with The New York Times, Vos described Trump as a “drag” on the party and said Republicans had worked to recruit center-right candidates in competitive districts.

“There’s nobody in Wisconsin that I think is yearning for a hard turn left or right,” Vos told The New York Times.

Republican Assembly candidates have circulated mailers claiming that politicians in Washington—where Republicans currently control every branch of the federal government—are “driving up costs and increasing inflation.” In Wisconsin, candidates are highlighting instances in which they have disagreed with party leaders to present themselves as independent voices.

Two pieces of legislation have become central examples: a law expanding Medicaid coverage for postpartum mothers and another measure expanding breast cancer screenings. Vos had held up the bills until the end of the legislative session. During a late-night press conference, a group of Republican Assembly lawmakers—each representing one of the state’s most politically competitive districts, and most of whom are seeking reelection—said they had persuaded Vos and other members of the caucus to allow the measures to advance. They also blamed Democrats for nearly preventing the bills from passing.

A mailer for Rep. Patrick Snyder (R-Weston) features a photograph of him speaking with reporters at a podium in the state Capitol during the press conference. Snyder is being challenged by John Kroll, a Democratic Marathon County Board supervisor.

The mailer says Snyder’s work “wasn’t about the spotlight” and that he will “always challenge the political leadership of either party if it’s the right thing to do for Marathon County’s families.” It also describes Snyder as an “old-school public servant” who has had “no problems bucking his own party to extend postpartum care for new mothers.”

In a Friday Facebook post, Rep. Bob Donovan (R-Greenfield) said he would “stand up to anyone to get stuff done for my local community,” including Republican leaders. He added that he “did it when I fought for postpartum Medicaid expansion & Gail’s law, and I’ll do it again.” Donovan faces Democrat Ben Brist, an Army veteran. Donovan won his 2024 election with 51.6% of the vote, compared with 48.4% for his challenger.

At a recent WisPolitics event, Joe Handrick, a former Republican Assembly member, said Democrats could flip the Legislature only if Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley secured a “really, really big” victory over Republican Tom Tiffany. Handrick said the margin would likely have to exceed 4 or 5 percentage points.

“If Tom Tiffany ties in the state of Wisconsin or loses by a couple of votes, the Republicans will maintain the Assembly,” Handrick said. “These Assembly Republicans outperform the top of the ticket.”

Handrick said interactions between swing voters and Republican incumbents could help those lawmakers retain support.

“They can vote for one person for governor or president and then they’ve been voting for Assembly Republicans. The incumbents—every day when you’re an incumbent you’re helping somebody. You’re helping them with a problem with the DNR or with the driveway or helping them get their Medicaid issue resolved,” Handrick said. “Those Assembly Republicans have always done better than the top of the ticket and there’s no reason to think they won’t this year.”

Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer (D-Racine) told the Examiner that the Republican strategy of distancing candidates from the rest of the party would not succeed. She said Trump’s unpopularity was helping Democrats’ path to a majority.

“Trump is deeply unpopular across our battleground districts, and that’s more than the five that we need to flip in order to gain a majority,” Neubauer said. “We have a real opportunity here to put forward a new vision. We know that it is not easy to beat long-term incumbents, but we feel that we have the winning formula this year.”

Neubauer said Wisconsin voters were “smart enough to see through these half-hearted attempts by Republicans to distance themselves from their own party.” She pointed to Snyder, who has been in office for nearly a decade and has frequently voted with Republicans.

“He, of course, has not actually fought back against the Trump administration and Republicans in Washington who are doing nothing to address the cost increases that voters are experiencing,” she said. “Pat Snyder is an establishment Republican, and I think his voters understand that, and this strategy will not work.”

“Republicans understand that people are unhappy with their party, and they are not excited about showing up to vote Republican this fall,” Neubauer said. “Pat Snyder can try to tell his voters that he’s not a Republican, but at the end of the day, there’s going to be an R next to his name, and he went right along with his party in giving a tax break to data centers, in refusing to adequately fund our schools and thereby increase their property taxes.”

“Pat Snyder and his colleagues across the Republican battlegrounds have been with Robin Vos every step of the way, and I do think that their strategy is not going to work,” she added.

The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee has raised $10.6 million this year for efforts to retain control of the chamber. Most of the money came from Diane Hendricks and Elizabeth Uihlein, billionaires who have contributed millions to Republican candidates across Wisconsin. Hendricks and the Uihleins have also donated millions to the Republican Party of Wisconsin, which has in turn directed millions to Republican gubernatorial candidate Tiffany.

The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee has reported raising more than $3.3 million this year.

Neubauer said Democrats’ strategy combines candidates who understand their communities’ challenges, direct conversations with voters and a “robust” paid-media program. She described the party’s fundraising model as “different” and expected spending to resemble the previous election cycle, when $1 million or more was spent in the most competitive districts. She said Democratic money generally arrives later in the campaign.

“Assembly Republicans have raised a lot of money from three billionaires whose financial interests are directly tied to whether Republicans control the state Assembly,” Neubauer said. She added that the ADCC has more than 2,500 donors from every county in Wisconsin.

“Our candidates and our members are on the phone every single day, calling donors to bring in the dollars that we need to get our message out. And often those dollars come in in more like $50 or $100 checks than several-million-dollar checks, so we are going to continue to work hard to make sure that we have the resources that we need to compete… I am confident that we will be able to bring in the resources that we need to communicate this year,” Neubauer said.

Burden said individual Democratic candidates had in some cases outraised their Republican opponents. He cited Assembly District 88, where Brandy Tollefson, the Democratic candidate and a De Pere school board member, reported raising more than $80,000 during the year. Her opponent, incumbent Rep. Benjamin Franklin (R-De Pere), reported raising more than $27,000.

“Although the Republican Party has been outraising the Democrats, individual Democratic candidates have been doing well raising funds,” Burden said. “This pattern has also been happening nationally in that federal Republican Party committees have been raising more but Democratic candidates have mostly been outraising their Republican opponents within districts and states. Big donations from a few wealthy individuals are keeping Republicans more competitive this year in Wisconsin, but the money alone will not guarantee them victory.”

Competitive Assembly races

The following are among the most competitive Wisconsin Assembly races scheduled for Nov. 3:

• Assembly District 21: The seat is open following the retirement of Rep. Jessie Rodriguez, a longtime Republican incumbent. Rodriguez won her 2024 term with 51.4% of the vote to 48.6% for her challenger. Democrat Daniel Bukiewicz, the mayor of Oak Creek, is facing Dylan Pfaffenbach, a Republican student at Carroll University.

• Assembly District 26: Rep. Joe Sheehan (D-Sheboygan) faces John Belanger, a Republican and former Sheboygan alderman. Sheehan won his 2024 election with 51.5% of the vote to 48.5% for his opponent, who was the Republican incumbent at the time.

• Assembly District 30: Rep. Shannon Zimmerman (R-River Falls), who was first elected in 2016, faces Kevin Knoke, a Democratic veteran and educator from Hudson. Zimmerman won his 2024 election with 54.3% of the vote to 45.7% for his Democratic challenger.

• Assembly District 51: Rep. Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville) faces Democrat Ben Gruber, a Wisconsin conservation warden and member of AFSCME Local 1215. Novak won his 2024 reelection bid with 51.7% of the vote to 48.3% for his Democratic challenger.

• Assembly District 53: Republican David Daniels and Democrat Becky Nichols, a former Menasha city council member, are competing for an open seat created by the retirement of Rep. Dean Kaufert (R-Neenah).

• Assembly District 61: Rep. Bob Donovan (R-Greenfield), who was first elected in 2022, faces Democrat Ben Brist, an Army veteran. Donovan won his 2024 election with 51.6% of the vote to 48.4% for his challenger.

• Assembly District 85: Rep. Patrick Snyder (R-Weston) faces Democrat John Kroll, a Marathon County Board supervisor. Snyder won his 2024 reelection bid with 53.2% of the vote to 46.7% for his Democratic challenger.

• Assembly District 88: Rep. Benjamin Franklin (R-De Pere) faces Democrat Brandy Tollefson, a De Pere school board member. Franklin won his first term with 50.3% of the vote to 49.7% for the Democratic candidate.

• Assembly District 89: Rep. Ryan Spaude (D-Ashwaubenon) faces Bobby Lindsey, a retired law enforcement professional and Marine Corps veteran. Spaude won his first term in 2024 with 51.4% of the vote to 48.6% for his opponent.

• Assembly District 92: Rep. Clint Moses (R-Menomonie) faces Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson, a fish farmer from Elk Mound.

• Assembly District 91: Democratic Rep. Jodi Emerson, who was first elected in 2018, faces Republican Bruce Stabenow, an Osseo resident and small-business owner. Emerson won her 2024 election with 51.6% of the vote to 48.4% for her Republican challenger.

• Assembly District 94: Democratic Rep. Steve Doyle faces Keith Purnell, a Republican Army veteran. Doyle was first elected during a May 2011 special election and has been reelected since. He won reelection in 2024 by 223 votes against the Republican candidate. The seat is expected to be one of Democrats’ top defensive targets, and the party has already invested more than $1 million in it.

Source: Alternet

Primary sources: Wisconsin Examiner, The New York Times, Facebook post, Facebook video