Wisconsin delivered Democrats a major disappointment in 2024, when Donald Trump narrowly carried the competitive swing state. But as the New York Times' David W. Chen reports, the party has high hopes for the 2026 midterms — and is aiming to pull off a "trifecta" in the state.

"This November, Democrats have a chance to do what seemed implausible a few short years ago: take control of the State Assembly and Senate while holding onto the governor's mansion," Chen writes in the Times. "With a trifecta, Democrats would pivot away from a rightward shift defined by tax cuts, neutered labor unions and voter restrictions. It would also empower them to redraw a congressional map for 2028 to counter Republican gerrymandering threats throughout the South."

The potential turnaround follows a long arc in Wisconsin politics. In the 2010 midterms, Chen notes, Republicans "rode a national wave of discontent" and were able to "wrest control" of the Wisconsin State Legislature. Now, according to the Times reporter, Democrats are looking at a "reversal of fortune" — one that "comes courtesy of a 2023 ruling by Wisconsin's newly liberal State Supreme Court, which concluded that the Republicans' legislative maps were unconstitutional and forced their replacement." The change in maps matters because it affects not only which party can build a legislative majority, but also how much influence each side has over future redistricting.

The old maps had produced stark disparities. "In 2018, for instance, Democratic Assembly candidates won 53 percent of the vote across the state, but claimed only 36 of 99 seats," Chen writes. "Those maps made Wisconsin a case study in undemocratic gerrymandering. But after Republicans begrudgingly accepted maps proposed by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, resurgent Democrats parlayed intense field organizing into big gains in 2024 — leaving them two seats shy of a State Senate majority, and five in the House. Now, after the democratic socialist candidate Francesca Hong was defeated last month in the Democratic primary for governor, Democrats believe they can finish the job."

Republican Robin Vos, speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly, is resigning at the end of 2026. He is not optimistic about what awaits his party in Wisconsin, describing President Donald Trump as a "drag" on the GOP and arguing that "some of the ways that he operates, not the policies per se, turn people off."

Democrats, meanwhile, are optimistic about Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who defeated Hong in a closely watched gubernatorial primary battle and leads the GOP nominee, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, in the polls. A governor's race can matter beyond the office itself because the winner would help shape the broader governing agenda if the party also takes the legislature.

"Democrats are favored in generic polling for the legislature, where Republicans have a 54-to-45 advantage in the Assembly, and 18-to-15 in the Senate, according to the Marquette poll," Chen reports. "But Republicans have a 2-to-1 financial advantage with $43 million raised, campaign finance reports show. Three of the most competitive Assembly races are nestled within the Third Congressional District in western Wisconsin. In the congressional race, Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat and a waitress with farm-country bona fides, is challenging U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a fiery Trump loyalist, in a race that could prove pivotal to control of the U.S. House."