William Blair is taking a contrarian stance on two of the crypto industry's largest publicly listed companies. In a research note dated July 15, analysts at the firm maintained Outperform ratings — a designation analysts assign to stocks they expect to beat the broader market — on both Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL), even as they sharply cut their near-term financial projections. Despite the reduced numbers, the analysts argued that both companies are positioned to benefit from a crypto recovery.

The cuts run deep

William Blair lowered its 2026 Coinbase revenue estimates by 12% and its 2027 forecasts by 13%. The adjusted EBITDA outlook — a profitability measure that excludes interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — took an even harder hit, with projections slashed by 34% across both years.

The culprit is declining spot trading volumes, which remain the engine that powers Coinbase's top line. The firm projects total trading volume on the platform will fall roughly 44% in 2026 to $669 billion, before rebounding by more than 32% in 2027.

For context, Coinbase shares currently sit about 60% below their peak from July 2025 and 26% beneath their March 2026 highs. William Blair's analysts see the pullback as having already absorbed the weak trading activity — in their view, the slowdown is already reflected in the share price even as the firm's own estimates came down.

Where the optimism comes from

The analysts pointed to what they called an "asymmetrical risk/reward" setup for both stocks — a framing that signals they judged the potential upside to outweigh the downside at current levels.

For Coinbase specifically, the firm expects EBITDA to hit its lowest point in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027. That recovery, they argue, will not be driven solely by a return of retail trading volume. Instead, newer revenue streams—including derivatives trading, prediction markets, and USDC-related activities—are expected to provide a more diversified earnings base. Whether volumes actually trace the projected trough-then-rebound path, and how quickly the newer lines scale, will be the concrete markers against which the firm's thesis can be measured.

The USDC growth story

Circle's USDC stablecoin has been quietly gaining ground. Its market share has climbed to approximately 27% as of April 2026, up from about 21% in 2024. Stablecoins — digital tokens designed to hold a stable value against a reference asset, typically the U.S. dollar — are used throughout crypto markets for trading, settlement and payments, which is why issuer market share has become a closely watched gauge of competitive position.

William Blair characterized the Coinbase-Circle relationship over USDC reserves as a "core positive" for both firms. Coinbase distributes USDC across its platform and earns a share of the interest income generated by Circle's reserve holdings — income that rises and falls with prevailing interest rates and the scale of USDC in circulation. The stablecoin's circulation trajectory is therefore one of the more direct data points to watch against the analysts' thesis.