One fact was evident to Alex Hinton, a Distinguished Professor of Anthropology at Rutgers University–Newark who has studied Donald Trump and his MAGA movement for years, when he attended MAGA rallies in three states on Oct. 24–25, 2026: the hardcore base is not walking away. One stop was a get-out-the-vote event hosted by Turning Point USA, a conservative group that mobilizes young voters, outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

Alongside a few dozen America First stalwarts wearing white “America the Beautiful” caps, Hinton sat on a wooden table under a small picnic pavilion, listening to speakers such as MAGA activist Scott Presler and Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser. Meuser reeled off MAGA talking points, including the supposed threat posed by transgender athletes and bathroom use, immigrant voter fraud and the “billionaire anarchist George Soros.”

Remarkably, the speakers barely mentioned Trump. The audience clapped politely, but the energy was tepid compared with the many MAGA rallies Hinton attended in 2024, when the Pennsylvania landscape was dotted with Trump and MAGA signs. This time, he saw none.

The numbers bear it out

A mid-October 2026 poll found that only a third of U.S. adults approve of the job Trump is doing, while 71% feel the country is on the wrong track. A majority of Americans are pessimistic, and a growing number worry about government corruption.

The reasons are not hard to find. There is the war with Iran, which has resulted in U.S. soldiers being killed and wounded. The conflict is costing billions of dollars and has spiked the price of gas. Most of all, Trump has lost support on the economy amid growing inflation and an affordability crisis.

Yet despite those headwinds, many of Trump’s MAGA loyalists still back him. That was underscored both at the Harrisburg event and at Trump’s midterm rallies, where attendees still enthusiastically chant “U.S.A.” and are decked out in red caps and MAGA merch.

Why? Hinton wrote a newly updated book, “It Can Happen Here,” on Trumpism and U.S. history, and has previously written about why people voted for Trump in 2024. Based on his research, he sees three key reasons some voters remain loyal. Meuser stressed all three at the Harrisburg rally as he warned of “lunatic” left socialism while extolling the Trump administration’s track record, including the immigration crackdown.

1. Socialist doomsday ‘fear porn’

While nervous about the war and inflation, many Trump supporters respond to fearmongering about “radical left” Democrats, some of whom, Trump contends, want to drive the country off a communist cliff.

Trump has long harped on this putative radical-left danger, and his warnings have gained new traction with the visibility of progressive hard-liners such as Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist mayor of New York.

Beyond the threat of socialism, Trump claims that under Democrats the U.S. would fall back into a “dark age” of economic mayhem, curtailed rights and religious freedoms, rampant crime and imperiled national security. MAGA stalwarts echo his warning of “Doomsday” scenarios.

To underscore the point, Trump and his loyalists are connecting the massive and sometimes destructive protests in France to democratic socialists and the “radical left.” For example, the White House posted a video on X featuring rioting and arson in France that warns, “Pay attention before it’s too late. This is the future Democrats want for America.” Other Trump supporters warn the unrest illustrates the civilizational threat of immigration and a looming “global Islamic takeover”.

MAGA pundits such as Fox News hosts Jesse Watters and Greg Gutfeld are encouraging this use of what they call “fear porn” to drive the 2026 midterm vote.

2. Border ‘invasion’ shut down

Trump won in 2024 largely thanks to two bread-and-butter election issues: the economy and immigration. While those on the left focus on the abuses of Trump’s immigration agents, many Trump supporters credit him with clamping down on what they view as a Biden-era border “invasion.” That episode, they claim, produced an influx of millions of “illegal aliens,” some of them dangerous criminals, who strained U.S. cities and took jobs from citizens.

These Trump-supporting immigration restrictionists argue that reports of abuses by Immigration and Customs Enforcement are exaggerated and that the need for mass deportations is urgent. If anything, some contend Trump has not done nearly enough in this regard.

MAGA loyalists give Trump higher marks on immigration than on any other major issue, which is why the Trump administration foregrounds immigration as one of its top “promises kept.” That is why, in Harrisburg, attendees were told that when they went to knock on doors later in the day, they should mention Trump’s promises kept, including “No. 1, a closed border.” The tax cuts and the drop in crime were Nos. 2 and 3.

3. ‘America is winning … bigly!’

Trump supporters feel the economic pinch, and some are unhappy about the war. But they contend that Trump — who wrote the book “The Art of the Deal” — always has a long-term strategy and a winning hand.

The proof? Supporters point to Trump’s long and self-described successful business career and note what they perceive as the many successes of his first term.

They also contend Trump has already delivered. As pro-Trump radio host Dan O’Donnell recently put it, under Trump “America is winning … bigly.”

Trump’s 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” cut taxes and government spending while delivering on campaign promises such as “no tax on tips” or overtime. Meanwhile, crime rates have plummeted and the stock market has reached new highs.

A White House press release dated Jan. 20, 2026 — “365 WINS IN 365 DAYS; President Trump’s Return Marks New Era of Success, Prosperity” — lists a win for each day of the second term’s first year, some of which fact-checkers have shown are exaggerated. They range “from negative net migration for the first time in 50 years to the largest homicide drop on record, trillions in reshored investments, peace deals ending multiple wars, record energy production and massive bureaucracy cuts.”

MAGA stalwarts, like Trump, are sharing lists of such accomplishments, including Top 25 lists, to turn out the vote. Trump’s bad polling numbers, some suggest, are the result of an anti-Trump “fake news” psyop. The reality, they say, is that Trump has launched what he calls the “golden age of America.”

A Trump midterm ‘golden wall’?

Does this hardcore base of Trump voters create a “golden wall” that will head off the major midterm gains many expect Democrats to make? The possibility gains force from polling that has historically underestimated Trump voter strength.

But from Hinton’s perspective, probably not. There are splits in MAGA that he has observed firsthand at gatherings such as the Conservative Political Action Conference, the annual meeting of conservative activists, and Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. The war in Iran has been at the center of the dispute, with some — including former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and commentators Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly — condemning what they call an “Israel First” faction for betraying MAGA’s “America First” principles.

Democrats, in contrast, appear more energized. Historically, the opposition party almost always makes gains during midterm elections, when every seat in the U.S. House is on the ballot — especially when there are economic troubles. And some wonder whether Trump supporters will turn out when he is not on the ballot.

Given the war and the affordability crisis, it seems likely Trump’s “golden wall” of MAGA diehards, like those Hinton saw at the Harrisburg rally, will not be enough to stave off significant midterm losses, including control of the House of Representatives. The question then will be what, if anything, Trump and his MAGA supporters will do about it.

Alex Hinton is Distinguished Professor of Anthropology and Director of the Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights at Rutgers University–Newark. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.