Wall Street is bracing for a fresh wave of tariffs, possible new action against Iran and a potential government shutdown after this week’s midterm elections.

Though analysts have been wrong before, many observers expect the Democrats to claw back some political power in this week’s vote. At the time of writing, Harvard University’s polling gives the Democrats a 96% chance of taking the House, and a 78% likelihood of winning both the House and the Senate. Even so, Wall Street expects President Trump to double down on some of his less popular policies following the vote.

Goldman Sachs wrote to clients this morning that it expects President Trump to increase tariffs in the event the Democrats secure greater congressional influence. Economists Alec Phillips and Abhay Duggirala reasoned that “Democrats have indicated they would seek to reverse some of President Trump’s tariffs, but we expect this to have a limited effect since the reversals would likely be focused on a few countries (e.g., Canada) or products.”

“We expect President Trump to announce new tariff increases after the election that would more than offset those reductions, likely resulting in a rise in the US effective tariff rate of a little under 2pp,” the economists added. The effective tariff rate is the average duty collected across all US imports.

Tariffs are also likely to become an increasingly important revenue source in the coming months. The conflict in the Middle East is proving costly, and it sits against a backdrop of $40 trillion in national debt, with budget hawks calling for deficits to be reduced to 3% of GDP from the current 6%.

Efforts to shrink those deficits, however, are likely to get bogged down in a more divided government, according to ING’s James Smith. He wrote to clients that fiscal gridlock would probably push attention back to trade policy and to how to squeeze more revenue out of import relationships.

“Remember tariffs?” Smith wrote. “After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, temporary 10% blanket rates ultimately gave way to a more permanent structure under Section 301. The issue has since slipped remarkably far down the agenda.”

Section 301 refers to a provision of US trade law that allows the administration to impose tariffs on goods from countries found to be engaging in unfair trade practices.

Iran action

The White House’s course of action in the Middle East after the midterms remains an unanswered question. As UBS’s Paul Donovan described it, the president may become more aggressive in the Gulf war “once freed from the pursuit of popularity.”

Public support for the conflict is thin. According to a Pew Research study published last month, just 14% of voters said they strongly approve of President Trump’s handling of the military conflict with Iran, with a further 20% saying they “somewhat” approve. With voters disenchanted, Trump’s only remaining motivations for the conflict lie in national security and his personal legacy.

“Where markets will want to focus is on the Republican reaction to the results,” said Donovan. “Does the Republican Party divide over MAGA-related issues, and does President Trump escalate hostilities in the Gulf war with wider economic consequences at home and abroad?”

More broadly, the cost of paying for the military action feeds into longer-term divisions over the future of government spending. Recent reports now put the cost of the Iran war at $47 billion, with a conflict initially outlined as a matter of weeks stretching into months.

“Republicans will likely attempt to pass a reconciliation bill along party lines in the coming weeks that could add substantially to defense spending and potentially address the debt limit, which will have to be dealt with before the late summer/fall of next year,” Deutsche Bank wrote to clients on Friday. “Recall, also, that federal government funding runs out on December 11 which will require bipartisan support for a continuing resolution to prevent a shutdown.”

A reconciliation bill is a budget procedure that lets certain tax and spending measures clear the Senate with a simple majority, which is why it can pass along party lines. A continuing resolution, by contrast, is a stopgap that keeps agencies funded while Congress negotiates full-year spending bills, and the debt limit is the statutory cap on federal borrowing.

Trump signed the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act on Sept. 2, which funded federal agencies through a 72-day window to Dec. 11.

Read together, the post-election calendar is a sequence of checkpoints: midterm results this week, tariff announcements Goldman expects after the vote, the Dec. 11 funding deadline and a debt-limit decision due before late summer or fall of next year.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.