Vistra Corp. (VST) stock rose 3.5% to $149.27 on Friday after a 13F filing revealed that Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, held 372,755 shares of VST valued at roughly $59.1 million at the end of Q2 2026.

The stock touched an intraday high of $149.45 before settling near that level. Trading volume came in at approximately 4.58 million shares, about 6% below the average daily session.

Key Takeaways

• Thiel Macro LLC disclosed 372,755 VST shares at the end of Q2 2026, worth approximately $59.1 million.
• VST stock rose 3.5% to $149.27 on Friday, though it remains well below its recent highs.
• Analysts hold a "Moderate Buy" consensus with an average price target of $223.53, suggesting over 49% upside from current levels.
• Vistra missed Q2 earnings, posting EPS of $0.76 against a $1.61 estimate, with revenue of $4.02 billion versus $5.46 billion expected.
• 111 hedge funds held VST at the end of Q2 2026, up from 106 the prior quarter, with Appaloosa holding around 2.22 million shares.

Earnings Miss, But Wall Street Stays Positive

Vistra's Q2 results fell short of expectations. The company reported EPS of $0.76, well below the $1.61 analyst consensus, while revenue reached $4.02 billion against expectations of $5.46 billion.

Despite the miss, Wall Street remains broadly constructive. VST carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, composed of one Strong Buy, 14 Buys, and two Holds, with an average price target of $223.53.

Individual targets vary widely. Goldman Sachs has a $206 target, Wells Fargo is at $212, Seaport Research Partners sits at $230, and Scotiabank recently raised its target from $293 to $298. Zacks moved VST from "Strong Buy" to "Hold" in August.

Why Thiel's Position Is Turning Heads

Under SEC rules, institutional managers managing over $100 million in equity assets must file 13F reports within 45 days of quarter end, which is why a snapshot of Thiel Macro's June 30 holdings surfaced in mid-August and moved the stock on Friday.

The filing does not explain the rationale behind the position, and it reflects holdings as of quarter end rather than a single-day purchase, so drawing conclusions about the motive would be speculative.

Even so, Vistra sits at the center of a debate about whether power, rather than chips, becomes the scarce resource in the next phase of the AI buildout. Data centers require large, reliable blocks of electricity, and Vistra operates a broad generation fleet in high-demand power markets, including natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar assets. Vistra's nuclear portfolio, which expanded with its 2024 acquisition of Energy Harbor, has drawn particular attention because hyperscalers seeking around-the-clock carbon-free power have signed agreements with nuclear plant operators in recent years.

Wolfe Research has argued that the market may be underpricing Vistra's ability to convert data-center demand into EBITDA and free cash flow growth.

Valuation and Institutional Interest

Vistra trades at roughly 15.8 times forward earnings, while Constellation Energy, which carries a heavier nuclear and contracted profile, trades at around 22.9 times. That discount could narrow if Vistra secures more data-center contracts and makes future cash flows more predictable.

Institutional ownership is broad. BlackRock acquired a new position worth approximately $4.61 billion in Q2. Appaloosa held around 2.22 million VST shares as of the same filing period, up about 10% from Q1.

In total, 111 hedge funds held VST at the end of Q2 2026, up from 106 the quarter before. Short interest stood near 9.64 million shares, or about 2.9% of float, with 1.9 days to cover as of August 14.

On the dividend front, Vistra declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, payable September 30 to stockholders of record as of September 21. The annualized yield stands at around 0.6%.

The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87, a market cap of $50.10 billion, and a beta of 1.40. Analysts expect full-year EPS of $9.21 for the current fiscal year.