Venezuela helped create OPEC. More than six decades later, it is considering walking away — and Washington appears perfectly happy to hold open the door.

Caracas is weighing whether to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with discussions that have included U.S. officials. No final decision has been made.

Venezuela produced about 1.117 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, according to OPEC's secondary sources, and is currently exempt from OPEC production quotas after years of sanctions, underinvestment, and economic turmoil gutted output. That collapse is a stark contrast to the country's peak era, when Venezuela was among the world's top oil exporters; the quota exemption means its output decisions sit outside the group's coordinated supply management, so a formal exit would carry limited immediate operational weight for OPEC policy even as its symbolic impact would be significant.

Venezuela, however, was one of OPEC's five founding members in 1960 and played a central role in assembling the organization — the cartel was conceived in large part to counter the pricing power of the major Western oil companies of that era. Its departure would come just months after the United Arab Emirates quit the group following years of frustration over production restrictions.

Iraq may be next in line. Baghdad has warned that it could reconsider its membership if an ongoing capacity review does not produce a higher production quota.

Together, the UAE, Venezuela, and Iraq represent more than 7 million bpd of production capacity — roughly 32% of the capacity held by OPEC's members, according to OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report. Venezuela and the UAE alone account for 4.9 million bpd. A cluster of departures at that scale would shrink the producer group's share of global supply and complicate its ability to present a unified front on output policy.

U.S. and Venezuelan officials are currently discussing greater American participation in the country's oil fields, including a possible 100-year lease on several assets. Chevron has already expanded its position, while SLB and Hunt Oil recently reached agreements with PDVSA. For Washington, backing Caracas's exit would fit a broader interest in loosening coordination among major producers while deepening American commercial ties to Venezuelan barrels.

Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves — the largest in the world by most estimates — but rebuilding production will take years, and current deals are expected to add only incremental barrels in the near term.

OPEC is already contending with growing U.S., Brazilian, and Guyanese supply, diminished Russian influence, and a Gulf war that has left some members unable to produce anywhere near capacity.

What bears watching in coming months is whether Venezuela formalizes a withdrawal, how Iraq's capacity review resolves, and whether any new U.S.-Venezuela energy agreements translate into measurable output gains.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com