Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, sees bitcoin's long-term path to $500,000 running through gold. In a new interview published by Bitcoin Magazine, Sigel lays out a macro framework that sizes the leading cryptocurrency against the precious metal, with half of gold's market capitalization serving as his "north star" for bitcoin's eventual valuation.

The conversation also highlights what Sigel describes as an "underappreciated optionality": bitcoin miners holding long-dated power contracts may own one of the scarcest assets in the AI economy.

Macro Backdrop and VanEck's Ten-Year View

The discussion opens with the macro backdrop and VanEck's ten-year view on bitcoin. Sigel works through the major macro bear cases, the concept of seller exhaustion — a situation in which selling pressure fades as potential sellers are depleted — and the practice of buying dips during periods of market stress. Later in the conversation, he addresses whether the bottom is in, along with price targets and the trajectory of bitcoin adoption.

Miners and Scarce Power in the AI Economy

A central portion of the interview focuses on mining economics. Sigel explains that artificial intelligence has changed the value of mining energy contracts, elevating the strategic importance of electricity secured at scale. The backdrop is an industry-wide shift: AI data centers require vast, reliable supplies of electricity, putting a premium on exactly the kind of large, long-duration power positions that miners hold. He describes how 10- to 20-year leases with investment-grade counterparties have changed miners' correlation with bitcoin, a departure from the pattern in which mining companies have traditionally traded in close step with the cryptocurrency's price. In his view, miners holding such power contracts may own one of the scarcest assets in the AI economy.

Gold as the Benchmark

Sigel then compares gold and bitcoin in terms of sizing and portfolio roles, examines bitcoin's relationship with the dollar, and frames the bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a key measure. His $500,000 target is anchored to half of gold's market capitalization, a reference point he calls bitcoin's "north star." The comparison draws on one of the industry's most widely cited valuation frameworks: analysts have long benchmarked bitcoin against gold's role as a non-sovereign store of value, while bitcoin's supply is fixed at 21 million coins. Gold's market capitalization is measured in the trillions of dollars, giving the framework an external anchor rooted in an asset that has served as a store of value for centuries.

Quantum Risk, Regulation, and Inflation

On technology risk, Sigel characterizes quantum computing as a real risk, but not a reason to sell. He also argues that bitcoin does not need more regulation. The interview closes with his views on inflation, fiscal dominance — a setting in which fiscal pressures come to drive monetary policy — and bitcoin's role as a hedge, themes that underpin VanEck's long-term bitcoin thesis. VanEck, a global investment management firm, was among the issuers that launched spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States in January 2024, a debut that brought regulated spot-market exposure to U.S. investors.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. The content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting. Nothing contained in the show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.