Bitcoin trading volumes were subdued during the first half of 2026, but VanEck believes the surface-level calm masks a deeper structural shift. According to the asset manager, the real narrative lies in an increasingly tight supply picture: 60.8% of circulating Bitcoin has not moved on-chain in more than twelve months, a level that ranks among the highest in the cryptocurrency's history. With Bitcoin's total supply capped at 21 million coins and new issuance further reduced by the April 2024 halving — which cut the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC — the proportion of coins sitting dormant takes on added significance for understanding available market liquidity.

Long-Term Holders Signal Low Sell Pressure

The 60.8% figure reflects what is commonly referred to as long-term holder supply, measured through a Glassnode-style on-chain methodology that classifies coins held by the same entities for more than 155 days as long-term holdings. VanEck uses this metric to characterize Bitcoin as a macro asset for its holders rather than a short-term trading instrument, reinforcing the view that a significant cohort of investors is committed to holding through market cycles.

The extended dormancy suggests that sell pressure from long-term holders is likely to remain subdued heading into the next phase of the market cycle. Historically, elevated long-term holder spending has coincided with increased on-chain activity, making the current low-movement environment a structural factor worth monitoring.

Institutional ETFs Continue to Absorb Supply

Since receiving SEC approval in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a regulated channel for institutional exposure to Bitcoin. Products issued by major financial institutions including VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity now collectively hold hundreds of thousands of BTC under custodial management. As a result, a substantial portion of the total Bitcoin supply has been effectively removed from the live order books of cryptocurrency exchanges, further constraining the amount of Bitcoin readily available for active trading. This trend has been reinforced by corporate treasury allocations from companies such as Strategy, which have added systematic demand alongside ETF flows.

Liquidity Considerations for Investors and Institutions

From the perspective of fund managers and institutional investors, the combination of reduced exchange reserves — which have trended downward over the past several years as holders increasingly move coins to self-custody or institutional cold storage — and steady inflow channels creates an environment in which lower liquidity could amplify price movements during periods of elevated trading activity.

At the same time, Bitcoin miners and broader market participants may find encouragement in Bitcoin's growing role as a form of collateral, a function that extends beyond its use as a speculative digital asset.

LATEST: 📊 VanEck says Bitcoin's quiet summer masks a tightening supply picture, with 60.8% of circulating supply unmoved for over a year. pic.twitter.com/Wyq68nxzKD — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) July 23, 2026

Thin Liquidity Meets Macro Uncertainty in 2026

The current landscape of widespread dormancy aligns with a period marked by macroeconomic uncertainty, continued institutional accumulation throughout 2026, and comparatively limited retail trading participation. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory remains a focal point for risk assets broadly, as rate decisions directly influence the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

Despite the strong holding pattern, long-term holders retain the option to sell, and ETF capital flows remain sensitive to broader market sentiment. Looking ahead, VanEck identifies U.S. interest rate policy and third-quarter ETF inflows as key catalysts that could shape the market's direction.

VanEck also noted that Strategy's recent $135 million Bitcoin sale did not disrupt its broader $1.25 billion acquisition plan. Separately, the launch of the VanEck BNB ETF marked the first U.S. spot BNB product, while a VanEck-listed Sui (SUI) ETN contributed to improved liquidity for that token.