VanEck said Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase after eight of its 12 capitulation indicators remained active as of Aug. 12. The asset manager said the current correction has lasted 10 months since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, placing the market in a stretch where past cycle signals have often been watched closely for signs of exhaustion.

The firm said a potential turning point could emerge between September and November if earlier cycle patterns repeat. However, VanEck cautioned that this timing does not amount to a firm Bitcoin price forecast, and that its signal set is better suited to describing market conditions than pinpointing a bottom.

Why VanEck Sees Bitcoin Nearing a Bottom

According to VanEck, a signal becomes active when it reaches an extreme historical percentile. Most signals must fall within the lowest 15% of historical observations, while higher-stress signals require placement in the lowest 10%.

JUST IN: VanEck says Bitcoin capitulation signals at full force! 👀 BTC won't fall as low during this cycle. pic.twitter.com/pBYOhsRaeS — Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) August 18, 2026

JUST IN: VanEck says Bitcoin capitulation signals at full force! 👀 BTC won't fall as low during this cycle. pic.twitter.com/pBYOhsRaeS

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VanEck applies a separate criterion for price drawdown. Under its framework, the signal is triggered when Bitcoin falls at least 35% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin was roughly 49% below its all-time high in October. Even so, that drawdown sat in the 35th percentile of historical drawdowns.

If the same percentile approach were applied to drawdowns, the number of active signals would fall to seven. VanEck said institutional ownership and spot ETP demand were likely to support a milder bear market.

The firm said it expected a shallower trough, but noted that this was only an assumption. In prior Bitcoin bear markets, drawdowns ranged from 78% to 94%.

VanEck also said it found no meaningful short-term edge in the signal set. When eight to 12 signals were active, Bitcoin posted an average return of 12.8% over the following 90 days, below the 15.2% baseline.

Over 180 days, the average return rose to 32%, again below the 36.3% baseline. Outperformance appeared only over a one-year horizon.

VanEck cautioned that the results were based on 115 observation days with heavy overlap and only a few market episodes. The firm said the dataset may indicate a late-cycle environment, but it cannot identify the exact bottom.

Fund Flows Shape Bitcoin Price Outlook

U.S. spot-based Bitcoin ETPs recorded $663 million in net inflows during the 30-day period cited by VanEck. That figure represented about 10,400 BTC and marked a reversal from the previous month’s $2.4 billion in outflows.

U.S. spot-based funds were down $385.2 million for the week ending Aug. 14. Demand then improved.

According to Farside data, spot Bitcoin funds saw $297.5 million in net inflows on Aug. 17 and another $189.3 million on Aug. 18. Combined, the $486.8 million in inflows offset much of the prior week’s redemptions.

Bitcoin traded at about $64,250 on Aug. 19, above VanEck’s Aug. 11 reference close of $63,549.

Coins that had been held for more than one year fell by 356,534 BTC over the past 30 days. That brought long-term holdings to 11.84 million BTC, or 59.1% of total circulation.

All six long-term holder age groups declined during the period. Coins held for one to two years posted the largest decrease, falling by about 156,000 BTC.

VanEck said some of the movement may reflect wallet security-related transfers rather than selling, though it said that explanation is difficult to verify.

The September-to-November period will now serve as the next test for VanEck’s Bitcoin outlook, with fund flows and long-term holder behavior likely to remain central to how the market is read over that window.

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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.