Uzbekistan appears to be hedging its bets on Afghanistan’s ability to function as a trade corridor.

Over the past year, Tashkent has expanded engagement with Afghanistan and set an ambitious target of nearly tripling annual bilateral trade volume over the next few years. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev also recently said the government was “actively working” with the Taliban leadership to create a trans-Afghan rail route that would speed the movement of Uzbek goods to Pakistani seaports.

At the same time, Pakistani media reports indicate that Tashkent and Islamabad have reached a provisional agreement to expand bilateral trade through routes that bypass Afghanistan and pass via China.

A trans-Afghan trade corridor would be the most efficient route for goods moving from Central Asia to Pakistan. However, plans for that route have been clouded by a sharp deterioration in Afghan-Pakistani relations, prompting Islamabad to close its main land border crossings and halt truck-borne trade. That makes the trade route question more than a matter of infrastructure: for Central Asian exporters, it also affects how reliably goods can move to the Arabian Sea while regional security conditions remain unstable.

According to Pakistani sources, Uzbekistan and Pakistan plan to sign a protocol soon that would formalize the expansion of trans-China trade. “The protocol is aimed at expanding transit options and ensuring uninterrupted movement of goods between the two countries despite evolving regional security challenges,” a Pakistan outlet called Profit quoted an unnamed official source as saying.

Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and China are currently building a railway that will connect to China’s rail network and open access to Pakistani ports. However, that project is still years from completion. In the near term, any Uzbek-Pakistani protocol would likely apply to truck-borne trade through China, offering a practical interim option while the longer rail link is still under construction.

Uzbekistan is not the only Central Asian country interested in the trans-China option. Earlier this year, Kyrgyzstan successfully tested an overland route to Pakistan via China. In early July, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan also announced plans to establish a strategic partnership.

By Eurasianet

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