Bitcoin is confronting growing liquidity pressure after Tether's USDT market capitalization contracted by $6.6 billion within 60 days, a decline that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant identifies as deeper than the redemption wave that followed FTX's collapse in December 2022. According to CryptoQuant's November 10 report, Bitcoin's apparent demand has fallen by 284,000 BTC, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for 30 consecutive days, and the Bull Score Index has slid from 90 to 20 while Bitcoin trades below its 365-day moving average of $76,400.

USDT Supply Posts Its Sharpest 60-Day Contraction

CryptoQuant reported that Tether's market capitalization recorded its largest 60-day contraction since the firm's tracking series began in mid-2022. The $6.6 billion decline also exceeds the contraction that followed FTX's collapse in December 2022, when the exchange's failure set off a wave of stablecoin redemptions across the industry.

The analytics firm characterized stablecoin supply as an important measure of potential buying power, meaning that shrinking USDT supply leaves fewer funds available for new cryptocurrency purchases. Because USDT is redeemable against Tether's reserves, a sustained contraction in circulation is generally read as capital exiting the crypto market rather than waiting on the sidelines. CryptoQuant also observed that stablecoin growth funded buying activity throughout the current market cycle, but the latest contraction shows that this source of liquidity has weakened.

Bitcoin Demand Falls While US Buying Stays Weak

Beyond stablecoin liquidity, Bitcoin's apparent demand declined by 284,000 BTC over a 30-day window, which CryptoQuant identified as the sharpest contraction since March 28, 2025. The Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of US spot demand, remained negative for 30 consecutive days, reflecting continued weakness in American buying. Coinbase is among the largest US-regulated crypto exchanges, which is why the index serves as a closely watched barometer of dollar-denominated demand.

Bitcoin also traded below its 365-day moving average of $76,400 — the average market price of the past year and a widely used gauge of long-term trend — while CryptoQuant flagged the 200-day moving average at $73,200 as the next support level. The firm's Bull Score Index dropped from 90 on October 13 to 20, a reading CryptoQuant classified as extremely bearish.

Unrealized Losses and Historical Comparisons Shape the Outlook

CryptoQuant reported that traders' unrealized profit margin fell from 33% on September 22 to negative 6%, meaning buyers who purchased one to three months ago now hold coins above their current cost basis. During previous bull-market corrections, this margin reached approximately negative 12%.

The firm identified similar demand contractions during March 2025 and June–July 2026. In April 2025, the Bull Score Index also dropped to 20 following tariff-related market losses, before recovering to 80 within two months as Bitcoin formed a market bottom.

Despite that historical precedent, CryptoQuant highlighted that the current environment combines declining stablecoin liquidity with persistent weakness in US buying. The firm noted that Bitcoin could face a deeper correction if these conditions persist. For now, the metrics CryptoQuant tracks — USDT supply, the Coinbase Premium Index and the Bull Score Index — are the markers to watch in gauging whether the conditions behind that warning are easing or persisting.