USDCHF dips below 200-hour moving average but finds support at rising 100-hour MA
Key Takeaways
- •USDCHF slipped below its 200-hour moving average at 0.80427 after sellers defended the 0.8060–0.8070 swing zone, but the decline was halted at the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.80291.
- •The rising 100-hour average has moved higher from roughly 0.8006 in the prior session to 0.8029, reflecting the climb in average hourly prices since the early-June low.
- •A break above the 200-hour moving average would hand buyers control and refocus attention on the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area, while a break below the 100-hour line would favor sellers with a downside target at 0.8006–0.8017.
- •Additional downside support stands at 0.8000, the 50% midpoint of the advance from the early-June low, followed by the 100-day moving average at 0.7978.
- •The Swiss franc is a traditional safe-haven currency, so USDCHF reacts to shifts in risk sentiment as well as to Swiss National Bank policy decisions taken at quarterly meetings.
USDCHF slipped below its 200-hour moving average at 0.80427 after sellers successfully defended the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area, but the decline found support at another familiar technical level: the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.80291.
USDCHF tracks the value of the US dollar against the Swiss franc, a currency long regarded as a traditional safe haven in times of market stress, with monetary policy set by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At a rate near 0.80, one US dollar buys roughly 0.80 francs. Because haven demand tends to strengthen the franc when investors turn cautious, the pair often reacts to shifts in broader risk sentiment as well as to SNB decisions, which the central bank takes at its scheduled quarterly policy meetings. Moving averages such as the 100-hour and 200-hour lines are among the most widely used tools in technical analysis, smoothing recent price action into dynamic levels of support and resistance; hourly averages like these are followed chiefly by short-term and intraday traders, while longer-period lines such as the 100-day average frame the broader trend.
The latest price action mirrors yesterday's session. The pair also bottomed against the 100-hour moving average early in that session, prompting a rebound above the 200-hour moving average and a retest of the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area. The key difference now is that the rising 100-hour moving average has moved higher—from around 0.8006 yesterday to 0.8029 today—reflecting the climb in average hourly prices since the early-June low.
What's next technically?
With the price trading between the 200-hour moving average at 0.80427 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.80291, buyers and sellers are battling between those two levels for control of the next move.
A break above the 200-hour moving average would give buyers more control and shift the focus back toward the 0.8060–0.8070 swing area. Conversely, a break below the 100-hour moving average would tilt the short-term bias more firmly in the sellers' favor, with the next downside target at the 0.8006–0.8017 swing area.
Below that, additional support comes at the 50% midpoint of the advance from the early-June low at 0.8000, followed by the 100-day moving average at 0.7978. Retracement levels such as the 50% midpoint, a concept rooted in Dow Theory, are commonly used by traders to gauge how far a corrective move may extend. The 100-day average sitting at 0.7978 also means that a sustained slide through the hourly levels would bring longer-horizon measures of the trend into play, not just intraday ones.
For now, the two hourly moving averages define the battle lines. Traders will be looking for momentum in the direction of the next break.
Source: ForexLive
