Over the past year, appeals from American tourism organizations seemed to follow Josh Loewen everywhere he looked. Billboards and banners proclaimed a state's or city's love for Canada, while online and social media advertisements promoted special deals for travelers from north of the border.

Loewen, a Vancouver resident who works as a marketing executive, said he understands the conciliatory overtures. The number of Canadians traveling to the United States plunged after President Donald Trump returned to office with remarks about making Canada the 51st state. Now, an acrimonious trade war between the two countries threatens to reinforce the informal boycott just as it appeared to be easing slightly.

"It's such a big ask right now," said Loewen, 45, referring to the U.S. tourism industry's attempts to win back Canadians like him before a new president occupies the White House. "It's just a wasted effort."

Relations between the U.S. and Canadian governments have deteriorated sharply since their trade negotiations collapsed last month. Trump imposed import taxes of up to 50% on a range of Canadian products, and Canada's government responded in kind. Trump ordered the U.S. government to change the name of the border-spanning Lake Ontario to "Lake America," while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissed insults from members of Trump's Cabinet as childish and undignified.

The bilateral rift has not stopped state and local tourism officials and popular destinations such as Graceland from trying to persuade Canadian visitors to return. New York state launched a "NY Loves Canada" promotion this summer offering discounts at hotels, restaurants, and attractions. Some downtown Las Vegas hotels are treating the Canadian dollar as equivalent to the U.S. dollar to give Canadian visitors more value for their money — a meaningful concession, since the Canadian dollar has long traded below its U.S. counterpart, meaning Canadians paying at par effectively receive a discount on their stay. Las Vegas tourism officials traveled to Canada last month to meet with travel advisers, tour operators, and airline representatives.

"We're here to make sure you know that we care about Canada," Steve Hill, president of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, said while in Vancouver.

The outreach extends to the national level as well. Brand USA, the U.S. tourism industry's marketing organization, is bringing its Travel Week trade-event series to Canada for the first time in October, expanding and rebranding an earlier program known as Canada Connect.

Canada traditionally sent more overnight international visitors to the United States than any other country, which is why the pullback carries outsized weight for an industry where international visitors typically spend more per trip than domestic ones. Amid last year's consumer-led backlash, both same-day trips and longer stays nosedived. Canadian residents made 25% fewer return border crossings and spent about $2.4 billion (CA$3.3 billion) less on travel to the U.S. in 2025 than the year before, according to Statistics Canada, the country's national statistical agency.

The retreat coincided with other headwinds, including a weaker Canadian dollar that made U.S. travel more expensive and rising airfare and hotel prices. Statistics Canada data shows Canadian air travel to the U.S. had already started declining in September 2023. But the abrupt pullback in stateside travel that accompanied Trump's second presidency and extended into this year signaled "a persistent shift away from the United States by Canadian residents in their travel preferences," agency analysts wrote in a July report.

Tentative signs of improvement emerged in May, June, and July, when border crossings picked up slightly, the agency reported. The latter two months coincided with the 2026 World Cup, cohosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Canada's national soccer team competed during the tournament's early weeks, giving some Canadians a reason to head south, and Carney attended the final match in New Jersey alongside Trump.

Car trips accounted for most of the uptick in cross-border traffic, while air travel to the U.S. fell from year-earlier levels in every month through June, Statistics Canada said. The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office estimates that during the first six months of 2026, Canadians made even fewer overnight visits — which typically generate more tourism spending — than during the same period last year.

A day after the World Cup ended, Trump announced that tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods would take effect in 30 days. The White House said the tariffs were intended to address U.S. complaints over Canadian barriers to American-made automobiles, alcohol, and dairy.

"You went from this really high, exciting moment for the U.S. in terms of international attention, to the next week, it's negative again," said Deborah Friedland, a hospitality consultant at financial services firm Eisner Advisory Group. "It's one step forward and two steps back."

With summer winding down, some of the U.S. destinations most dependent on Canadian visitors are heading into their most important season. Large numbers of Canadian snowbirds typically flock to warm-weather locations in Florida, Arizona, and California when temperatures drop at home, often staying for months at a time and forming a seasonal backbone of local economies in those regions — making the coming months a test of whether the grassroots boycott will extend into another winter.

"I'd be surprised if we're talking a year from now and all of a sudden you see this huge uptick in Canadian travel over the winter months," Friedland said.

Not all tourism officials are worried. Jennifer Adams, tourism director for the Destin-Fort Walton Beach area in Florida's Panhandle, said she never panicked when headlines about Canadians shunning U.S. travel first appeared last year.

"I felt our message was strong," she said, adding that "the thing for us is to let the Canadian family know that they are welcomed here and we are committed to giving them a great experience when they get here."

Florida saw a 7% decline in Canadian visitors in 2025 compared with the previous year, according to state marketing organization Visit Florida. Sister organization Visit California, citing data from global research and consulting company Tourism Economics, estimated that Canadian visitation to the Golden State fell 20%.

Loewen, the Vancouver marketing executive, said his family loved visiting the United States; he, his wife, and their two children often traveled to San Diego, Portland, and Seattle. This year, they chose Mexico instead. The reluctance, Loewen said, has little to do with whether the U.S. can offer a good vacation — it is about whether Canadians want to spend their money there while tensions between the two countries remain so high. Loewen said his family has not set foot in the U.S. since Trump's inauguration and does not plan to until there is a new president.

Eileen March, a life coach from Calgary, said she made a similar decision. Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state and his trade policies were part of it, as was a broader sense of no longer feeling safe or welcome in the United States, March said.

"As time has worn on, I was beginning to waver," she said. The latest round of tariffs "reinforced my initial decision to not travel in the U.S. at all while he is in office." She refuses even to book flights with layovers in the U.S.

March, 41, knows that staying away for four years is a long time, and she is prepared to go even longer. "I think that'll really depend on who is elected next, their values and the relationship they attempt to foster or repair with Canada," she said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.