Iran's regime maintains an iron grip on power, but it can no longer ignore the mounting toll of U.S. economic warfare, which continues to intensify.

That pressure now extends even to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since the U.S.-Israeli strike on Feb. 28 that killed his father. In a written statement issued late last month, he banned Iranian officials from "committing anything that harms social cohesion" and urged them to avoid any "discouraging statements that weaken national and public motivation," according to Reuters. The directive is a notable intervention for a leader whose public profile has been shaped by the transition that followed his father's death, and it signals that the leadership views morale — both inside the government and among the public — as a mounting internal risk at a time when the state's ability to deliver economic relief is constrained.

His warning comes as economic hardship and long lines at gas stations have already stirred fresh protests, though not on the massive scale seen in January. A currency collapse and high inflation last year triggered widespread unrest, during which the regime slaughtered thousands in a brutal crackdown. Since then, the rial has plunged to new lows and economic conditions have deteriorated further under the U.S. war and naval blockade. The recurrence of unrest rooted in fuel shortages and living costs echoes earlier episodes in Iran's modern history, where economic grievances — most notably in the 2019 fuel-price protests — quickly widened into broader challenges to the state, which helps explain why the leadership treats "social cohesion" as a security matter as much as an economic one.

In his statement, Khamenei expressed concern about the economy and called on the government to act. "There is the need to seriously address the chain of economic and livelihood challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, management of prices and the market for goods and services," he said.

Around the same time, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian similarly acknowledged his country's economic woes. In an interview with state media, he signaled defiance in the face of the pressure and credited Iran's resilience to its unity, but admitted "we have many problems." Pezeshkian, a relative moderate elected in 2024 on a platform that included pursuing sanctions relief through engagement with the West, has found that agenda overtaken by the confrontation with Washington, leaving him to manage the fallout of a wartime economy.

Pezeshkian estimated that Iranian trade has plunged 25% to 35%, with imports down significantly more than exports, and voiced frustration with attempts to deny the economic impact. "Some people say that sanctions have no effect at all," he added. "I really don't know what to tell these people. I just want to say this: Saying that sanctions have no effect is not consistent with these facts."

Meanwhile, the U.S. is tightening the screws. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an "economic D-Day" aimed at shutting down avenues that help Iran dodge sanctions, further degrading the regime's ability to earn money from oil exports and obtain vital imports.

Senior Iranian sources told Reuters that the U.S. blockade and its crackdown on sanctions evasion are becoming increasingly difficult to withstand. The effort to block Iran from international financing networks in other countries represents an especially urgent threat, the report said. One senior source added that Iran has only two months' worth of gasoline supplies, which must be imported due to limited domestic refining capacity. The gasoline shortfall is particularly pointed because Iran, despite sitting atop some of the world's largest crude oil reserves, has long lacked sufficient refining capacity to meet domestic fuel demand and has historically relied on imports — a vulnerability the blockade now presses directly.

Iran's currency has crashed to 2.2 million rials per U.S. dollar, down from about 1 million a year ago. Inflation has soared above 80%, with prices for certain food staples up 100%.

Experts have cautioned, however, that Iran's repressive regime is unlikely to be swayed by the suffering of ordinary citizens and is prepared to wait out economic hardship longer than the U.S. public can endure high gas prices.

U.S. economic pressure also relies on the Navy's continued presence to maintain the blockade on Iran and to escort oil tankers from Gulf Arab producers through the Strait of Hormuz. Such an indefinite, expansive mission could strain U.S. military resources and readiness, while Iran only needs to sustain limited strikes on commercial shipping to keep traffic below prewar levels. The strait carries a large share of globally traded oil, meaning that any sustained disruption there has consequences well beyond the bilateral conflict, from shipping insurance costs to energy supply chains in Asia and Europe.

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Navy is getting better at defending against Iranian attacks and that other countries have expressed willingness to help. "But there's simply no other country on earth that has nearly the military capacity of the United States," he added. "So in this conflict where it's still a little bit hot, it's dominated by the United States right now. The other military assets involved are our friends and allies in the region. But to get those from outside of the region, I hope that's soon." How long that burden-sharing remains manageable — and whether Iran's gasoline reserves and internal cohesion hold — will shape the next phase of the standoff.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.