The US dollar advanced after the October US jobs report landed stronger than expected. Nonfarm payrolls climbed 165K, well above the 65K estimate, while September's tally was revised up to 60K from an initial 29K — a net revision of +84K across the prior two months. Revisions of that size matter because they reshape the labor-market picture the Fed and market participants work from beyond any single month's headline. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, even as labor force participation ticked higher.

The wage figures also caught the market's attention. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% from a year ago, both above expectations. Wage growth is a series the Fed monitors closely for its bearing on inflation, so the upside surprise there carried weight alongside the headline payrolls beat. There was some softness beneath the headline: the U6 underemployment rate climbed to 7.9% from 7.6% as more people worked part time for economic reasons. Still, the combination of stronger payrolls and firmer wages put a potential December Fed hike more in play. Jobs data feeds the dollar mainly through Fed rate expectations, which show up most directly in short-dated Treasury yields. The US 2-year yield rose 4.5 basis points on the day to 4.52%, while USDJPY was up 72 pips at 158.38 in the initial reaction to the report.

Can the dollar hold its gains?

The accompanying video analysis runs through EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD and AUDUSD. For each pair, it identifies the level that acts as a barometer between buyers and sellers, where traders can define close risk, and the next targets if the move continues.

Because the dollar sits on opposite sides of these six pairs, its post-report strength shows up as rising prices in USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD and as falling prices in EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. The first move after payrolls can come quickly. What matters next is whether price can stay beyond the levels it broke. For USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD, that means watching whether buyers can hold above broken resistance. For EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD, it means watching whether sellers can keep price below broken support. If those breaks hold, traders have a level to lean against as they look toward the next target. If price moves back through the breakout level, that is the first clue the post-jobs move is losing momentum.

Key levels by pair

EURUSD: The pair trades below a swing area between 1.1152 and 1.1160. As long as price holds below, the October lows are the downside target.

USDJPY: The pair is moving back toward the 200-day moving average at 158.60, a widely watched gauge of the longer-term trend. As the analysis has stressed for some time, getting and staying above that MA is what buyers need to take control. Buyers have tried going back to September, but buyers have repeatedly turned into sellers. Price has pushed above the 200-hour and 100-hour MAs at 157.93 and 158.104 — that zone is now the risk level.

GBPUSD: The pair fell sharply away from the confluence of the 100-day MA and the 200-hour MA at 1.3392. Staying below keeps sellers in control, with the broken 38.2% retracement — a Fibonacci level commonly tracked by technical traders — at 1.3342 the next target.

USDCHF: The pair is trading higher and testing the 200-hour MA and a broken 38.2% retracement near 0.8224. Getting above would be more bullish. Staying below leaves the price between the 100-hour MA at 0.8172 and the resistance overhead.

USDCAD: With stronger US jobs data and weaker Canadian jobs figures to digest, the pair is moving higher and into the swing area between 1.4129 and 1.4153.

AUDUSD: The pair is testing the key swing area floor going back to January, which spans 0.6832 to 0.6863.