The Conference Board said U.S. consumer confidence eased in July, with the headline index falling to 90.8 from a revised 92.2 in the prior month. The reading also came in below the 92.3 estimate.

Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said:

"Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward trajectory that has been in place since late 2021. The Present Situation Index weakened for a third consecutive month, while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory.

"Consumers were less positive about current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, the labor market. Looking ahead, they see little improvement in business conditions over the next six months. Expectations for the labor market became slightly less negative, while income expectations eased but remained generally optimistic."

Present Situation

The Present Situation Index weakened in July as consumers grew less positive about current economic conditions.

The net assessment of business conditions fell 2.6 percentage points to +1.1%, leaving it only slightly above zero.

Views of the labor market also softened, with the labor market differential slipping 0.7 percentage points to +3.1%.

The decline was driven mainly by a smaller share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful," while the share saying jobs are "hard to get" edged slightly lower. That combination matters because the labor market reading is one of the Conference Board survey’s most closely watched indicators for consumer spending conditions, which in turn are important for the broader U.S. economy.

Expectations

The Expectations Index was unchanged in July, though the underlying details were mixed.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated, with the net balance falling 1.5 percentage points to -3.3%.

Income expectations eased modestly, declining 0.5 percentage points to +7.3%, but remained positive overall.

Labor market expectations improved by 1.3 percentage points, although they remained in negative territory, indicating consumers still expect employment conditions to weaken over the next six months.

The Conference Board said the Present Situation and Expectations measures continue to diverge, with the present situation moving lower while expectations are largely moving sideways. An Expectations Index below 80 has historically been associated with a higher risk of recession, and it has been below that level for most of 2025 and 2026.

Inflation Expectations

The Conference Board did not provide numerical inflation expectations in the release. Instead, it said:

• Average 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated in July.
• Median 12-month inflation expectations were also less elevated in July.

The chart showed both measures retracing part of their recent spike higher.

Quick Summary

• Consumer Confidence: 90.8 versus 92.2 previously, down 1.4 points
• Present Situation: 114.9 versus 118.5 previously, down 3.6 points
• Expectations: 74.7 versus 74.7 previously, unchanged and still below the 80 level often associated with recession risk
• Inflation expectations: both average and median declined, but no numerical figures were released

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic or pessimistic U.S. consumers are about current and future economic conditions. Because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the report is closely watched as a gauge of future economic performance and as a read on whether households are becoming more cautious about purchases ahead.

The index tracks current business and labor market conditions, as well as expectations for the economy, jobs and income over the next six months.

Higher confidence can indicate stronger consumer spending, supporting economic growth, stocks, Treasury yields and potentially the U.S. dollar. Lower confidence can suggest consumers may reduce spending, weighing on growth and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Markets also watch the Expectations Index and the labor market differential, which compares jobs that are plentiful with jobs that are hard to get, for clues about the economy and future Federal Reserve policy.