NewsMacroIran is running out of money and cannot pay its troops as U.S. blockade chokes the economy and unrest grows, Central Command says

Iran is running out of money and cannot pay its troops as U.S. blockade chokes the economy and unrest grows, Central Command says

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • •U.S. Central Command chiefm. Brad Cooper said the naval blockade has stopped Iran from exporting at least $25 billion in crude oil, while the U.S. and its partners have frozen nearly $350 million in cryptocurrency assets.
  • •Iran has withheld salaries, pensions, and benefits from workers in the energy, manufacturing, construction, and security sectors, including the IRGC, which reportedly is not paying its troops.
  • •Iran's inflation stands near 90% and its currency is in free fall, prompting pension protests by retired government employees and workers quitting over insufficient pay.
  • •Separatist militants in Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan provinces have intensified attacks, killing at least eight members of Iran's security forces in the past three weeks.
  • •Payments for Iran's remaining pre-blockade crude deliveries, which primarily go to China, could extend only to December, after which the regime will be cut off from its top source of hard currency.
Iran is running out of money and cannot pay its troops as U.S. blockade chokes the economy and unrest grows, Central Command says

U.S. economic warfare against Iran is striking at the pillars of the regime's power, with troops going unpaid at the very moment they are needed to quell mounting unrest in the country's southeastern provinces. The arrears reach the institutions the regime relies on to hold power, arriving just as the threats those forces must confront are multiplying.

In a video message posted on Friday, U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper said the naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil. The U.S. and its partners have also frozen nearly $350 million in cryptocurrency assets, he added—reflecting how digital-asset seizures have become a newer front in sanctions enforcement alongside the interdiction of oil cargoes.

Cooper said the effects have rippled throughout Iran's economy, forcing the regime to withhold salaries, pensions, and benefits from workers in the energy, manufacturing, construction, and security sectors—including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite ideological branch of Iran's military, which also controls sprawling business interests that give it an outsize role in the economy.

"The financial strain on Iran's military has become so significant that there are reports of Iran-aligned militia groups across the region withholding payments to their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also is not paying its troops," he said. "The Islamic regime is clearly feeling the economic pain, and the IRGC is increasingly showing signs of greater desperation as a result."

Cooper pointed to a resurgence in Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. Even so, the flow of oil remains near prewar levels, as Iran's neighbors export their crude under the protection of the U.S. military.

The economic collapse has grown severe enough that even Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has expressed concern. Earlier this month, state media reported that Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official, admitted the country is enduring one of the most difficult periods it has ever faced.

Meanwhile, Iran's currency is in free fall as oil revenue dries up. The trickle of sales from crude that was already at sea before the U.S. reimposed its blockade is now running out, and payments for those final deliveries—which primarily end up in China—could stretch to December. Once that spigot runs dry, the regime will be cut off from what was previously its top source of hard currency, leaving it without its principal lever for funding the state.

Oil sales typically make up about a third of Iran's state budget and are also a key source of funding for the IRGC. Central Command's Friday update tracks with earlier signs that the regime is suffering a cash crunch.

Local media have reported that retired government employees staged protests in recent weeks because they did not receive their full pensions, according to the New York Times. Workers in both the public and private sectors have also announced on social media that they are quitting over insufficient pay.

That comes as inflation is now near 90% and accelerating each month, eroding the salaries Iranians earn and forcing consumers to pay for everyday essentials like groceries through installment plans.

The military's inability to pay its troops comes at an especially critical time. Iran's forces are not only becoming more aggressive toward tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow passage at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil—but are also preparing for a fresh U.S. offensive that may come after the midterm elections while fighting growing domestic unrest.

Separatist militants in the southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, a restive region along Iran's border with Pakistan where the state has long battled insurgencies, have stepped up attacks against the regime. State media reported that at least eight members of Iran's security forces have been killed there in the past three weeks, including a police officer, a Basij militia fighter, and a senior IRGC commander.

Iran's security forces are stretched thin by a lack of resources as well as increased foreign and internal threats, according to Shay Khatiri, a senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute. "As the Iranian regime weakens, the number of such local movements will likely multiply in number and consolidate in power," he added in a post for the Middle East Forum.

This story was originally reported by Fortune.