The U.S. advance goods trade balance for June came in at -$101.5 billion, compared with an estimate of -$100 billion. The prior reading was revised to -$105.8 billion, the worst deficit since July 2025.

Goods exports in June were $204.7 billion, down from $207.7 billion in the previous month, a decline of $3.8 billion. Goods imports were $306.2 billion, down from $313.4 billion in the prior month, a decrease of $8.2 billion.

Although the June figure was better than the previous report, the earlier month still marked the largest deficit since July 2025. The report is one of the earlier monthly reads on trade flows, so it tends to draw attention for what it can signal about the goods side of GDP before the fuller trade release arrives.

Details

The June report points to a broad cooling in international trade, although the category breakdown was mixed.

Exports

Total exports fell 1.8% from May.

The largest drag came from industrial supplies, which declined 4.4%, likely reflecting lower commodity and energy-related shipments. Capital goods also fell 1.1%, suggesting softer overseas demand for U.S. machinery and equipment.

There were some bright spots. Automotive exports rose 5.1%, while consumer goods increased 3.2%, indicating resilient demand in those sectors.

Imports

Total imports declined 2.6%, with every major category posting a monthly drop.

Consumer goods recorded the sharpest decline, falling 3.8%, which could point to softer domestic demand or normalization after earlier inventory building. Capital goods imports fell 2.0%, potentially signaling slower business investment.

Lower imports of industrial supplies and autos also contributed to the overall decline.

Bottom line

The trade deficit narrowed to -$101.5 billion from -$105.9 billion, but much of the improvement came from imports falling faster than exports rather than from stronger foreign demand for U.S. goods.

For economists, the report is mixed. A narrower trade deficit could provide a modest boost to second-quarter GDP calculations. At the same time, the broad drop in imports, especially consumer and capital goods, may reflect slower domestic demand and more cautious business spending, while weaker exports suggest overseas demand also softened.

Overall, the report points to slowing trade activity rather than accelerating global growth, even if the smaller trade gap may offer a modest positive for GDP.

For background, the U.S. advance goods trade balance is a monthly report published by the Census Bureau as part of its Advance Economic Indicators Report, released roughly a week ahead of the comprehensive FT-900 international trade figures. It covers goods trade only, measured on a Census basis by principal end-use category, and provides an early reading on exports, imports, and the goods deficit for the reference month. Because goods flows account for most of the month-to-month volatility in the broader trade balance, the advance release is closely watched as an input to GDP nowcasting, which was downgraded yesterday for Q2.