Uniswap (UNI) could decline toward $7.80 over the coming weeks after its latest rally lost momentum near a major resistance area, according to a September 25 CoinJournal technical analysis. An overbought weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a rejection below the $11.51 Fibonacci level, and a concentration of leveraged long positions beneath the market all point to an elevated risk of a correction.

UNI, the governance token of the Uniswap decentralized exchange protocol, traded near $9.11 on September 25 after reaching an intraweek high of roughly $10.95. Although the token's longer-term technical structure has improved, the analysis notes it may need to cool further before attempting another sustained advance.

Rally loses momentum below $11.50

Uniswap's recent rebound carried the price close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $11.51, one of the ratios traders commonly use to mark potential turning points for pullbacks. That zone had stood as an important upside target ever since UNI broke out above a long-term descending resistance trendline, but the token failed to reach or clear the level convincingly.

Sellers emerged around $10.95, pushing the price back toward $9.11 and leaving a substantial upper wick on the developing weekly candle. A long upper wick typically signals that buyers drove the price higher during the period but could not hold those gains. While the pattern does not guarantee a reversal, it indicates that selling pressure has increased near the recent high.

The rejection is especially relevant because it occurred just below major Fibonacci resistance. Unless UNI can reclaim the $10.95–$11.51 region, traders may treat the latest move as an unsuccessful breakout attempt rather than the beginning of another sustained rally.

Overbought RSI raises correction risk

Momentum indicators also suggest that Uniswap's advance may be becoming stretched. UNI's weekly RSI has risen to around 73, placing it above the traditional overbought threshold of 70.

An overbought RSI does not automatically mean a sell-off is imminent. During strong trends, cryptocurrencies can remain overbought for extended periods even as prices continue rising. Nevertheless, UNI's previous sharp weekly rallies have frequently been followed by consolidation or multi-week corrections as traders locked in profits. Combined with resistance near $11.51 and the recent upper wick, the elevated reading strengthens the possibility of a short-term pullback.

The first major technical target on the downside is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $7.83, a long-term trend indicator traders often watch for zones where deeper pullbacks may find support. A decline from $9.21 to that level would represent a correction of about 15%. If buyers defend the $7.80–$7.85 area, UNI could establish a higher low and prepare for another attempt at $11.50. Losing that support, however, would expose the 100-week EMA near $6.91.

Despite these near-term risks, Uniswap's broader chart remains healthier than it was earlier in the year. UNI is still trading above several important weekly moving averages and has broken through a long-term descending resistance line. A pullback to $7.83 could therefore function as a retest of support rather than the start of a larger bearish reversal.

Liquidation cluster adds downside pressure

Derivatives positioning creates an additional source of selling pressure. Data from CoinGlass, a platform that aggregates cryptocurrency derivatives information, shows a significant cluster of leveraged long positions around $8. on Binance's UNI/USDT market, with approximately $5.16 million in liquidation leverage concentrated near that price. If UNI falls toward $8.87, the move could expose an estimated $10.35 million in cumulative long liquidations.

When a leveraged long position is liquidated, the exchange closes it automatically by selling the underlying exposure. If many positions are forced to close in a short period, that selling can accelerate the decline and trigger further liquidations at lower prices. This dynamic makes $8.87 a potential liquidity magnet: a modest pullback toward the level could develop into a sharper move if forced selling overwhelms available demand.

The liquidation heatmap also identifies short-position liquidity above the current market, meaning an unexpected rally could still generate a short squeeze. However, the larger concentration of vulnerable longs immediately below the price makes the downside risk more pressing in the near term.

Can UNI recover toward $11.50?

Uniswap's next move may depend on whether buyers can protect the $8.87 liquidity zone and the stronger technical support around $7.83. A successful defense of these levels would preserve the improving weekly structure and leave UNI positioned for another test of $11.50. A decisive weekly close above that resistance would weaken the correction scenario and could open the door to higher targets.

Conversely, a liquidation-driven decline below $8.87 would increase the probability of a move toward the 200-week EMA at $7.83. If that floor also breaks, the 100-week EMA near $6.91 would become the next significant downside level.

For now, UNI's longer-term recovery remains intact, but overbought momentum and crowded leveraged positioning suggest that volatility — and potentially a 15% correction — could come first.