President Donald Trump has signed an executive order waiving—temporarily, and with no fixed end date—the package of sweeping tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and gas, leaving Secretary of State Marco Rubio's pledged 60-day review to decide the policy's fate. The move lands as Bitcoin trades near $81,600, roughly 35% below its record, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 that follows a September rate hike and a 3.7% inflation reading.

The waiver is the second half of a diesel deal. On October 9, Trump announced that Vladimir Putin had agreed to ship 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes after that, with 3 million more depending on the state of Russia's refineries. US diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September. If more diesel eases fuel costs, the pressure on the Fed could ease too—though nothing yet shows it: Bitcoin barely moved over the weekend.

What the order says, and what it doesn't

The order, dated October 16, 2026, and paraphrased here, implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 through four provisions:

• Section 2(b) — A 100% duty on goods from the five biggest importers of Russian crude oil and gas, if they knowingly make new purchases on or after October 18, the day it would have started to apply.
• Section 4(d) — The waivers stay in force until the president or the secretary of state, consulting Treasury and the trade representative, decides further action is appropriate. No date is set; the 60 days are Rubio's, not the order's.
• Section 3 — The trade representative monitors Russian oil and gas purchases and must promptly tell the president about anything that might call for further action, including on the waivers. This is the formal route back to the tariffs.
• Section 4(b) — Sanctions imposed under earlier executive orders are untouched. The waiver is a pause on the new package, not a rollback.

Source: White House.

The waived package also included a 500% duty on goods from Russia and a 100% duty on the five biggest facilitators of Russian sanctions evasion. Reuters reported on Saturday that Rubio pointed to India as an example of the complication—the Graham Act targets not only Russia but also the countries that buy its energy—and said the president would use up to 60 days to weigh the economic impact. Trump certified to Congress that the waiver serves US national interests.

Criticism was not confined to policy circles: RFE/RL reported objections from lawmakers of both parties, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the waiver would embolden Putin. If the 60 days run from Friday, they end around December 15. Rubio didn't say when the clock starts.

The diesel deal behind the waiver

Treasury issued a general license—a standing authorization for transactions that would otherwise be prohibited—for Russian diesel on the day of the announcement, to run for six months, and Tablet reported that Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban the next day. The volumes are Trump's own figures, and the largest piece depends on refineries that Ukraine has been striking. In total, Trump's October 9 announcement pledged 4.8 million tonnes of Russian diesel, as stated in his post, according to Newsweek.

The baseline comes from the US Energy Information Administration's October outlook, finished on October 1, before the deal. It found US retail diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September and East Coast distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were 32% below their five-year seasonal average. The EIA expects inventories to stay about 20% below the 2021–2025 average through winter, blames constrained Middle East supply, forecasts Brent crude at $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and says tight diesel markets push crude demand higher as refiners chase more fuel. The next outlook, due November 10, should be the first to include the deal.

The Fed's Beige Book, published October 14 with information through October 5, found higher oil prices in every district report and fuel surcharges passing costs along supply chains. Firms in several districts expect further price increases as contracts and hedges expire. In the Dallas district, farm contacts said diesel prices had nearly doubled, while most retailers said it hadn't yet reached selling prices. All of that predates the deal.

How a Russian diesel deal reaches Bitcoin

The link is a chain of reasoning, and each step has a number. Diesel is one of the prices pushing inflation up: Dallas Fed contacts named it the most commonly cited cost pressure, and September's 3.7% headline CPI sits a full point above 2.6% core inflation, which excludes food and energy. The Fed is raising rates against that inflation. Its path sets what Treasuries pay above inflation—the real yield—and Bitcoin pays no yield while that return is available elsewhere. So if more Russian diesel lowers fuel costs, it could ease the pressure on the Fed and on real yields. If the waiver is reversed or the diesel doesn't arrive, the pressure stays.

That is reasoning, not a measured result. No price or flow figure shows Bitcoin reacting to the waiver. The sections below show where each link stands.

The Fed was already tightening

The middle of that chain was moving before the waiver. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. September's CPI report, released October 14, showed prices up 3.7% from a year earlier, against 3.4% in August, with core inflation at 2.6%. It was the last inflation reading before the Fed meets on October 27–28.

Real yields were already falling before the waiver. The 10-year real yield—what Treasuries pay above inflation, per US Treasury data—slid from 2.95% on October 5 to 2.74% at Friday's close, with four straight daily declines, including on CPI day. Friday's numbers are not a clean "before" picture: they include a week of reaction to the diesel deal. The 10-year nominal yield was 5.09%, which implies about 2.35% of inflation compensation. (In daily bar charts of the 10-year real yield for October 5–16, bars start at 2.70%, so the differences look larger than they are; October 12 was a market holiday.)

What Bitcoin did

Bitcoin changed hands near $81,600 on Sunday (October 18) morning, about 1.5% below a week earlier, in a range of roughly $80,800 to $81,800 over the previous 24 hours, according to exchange data.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $175.7 million on Tuesday, October 13, and lost $261.4 million on Wednesday, October 14, the day of the CPI report. They lost $228.4 million over the week, according to Farside Investors. No price or flow figure ties a move to the waiver itself. The last link in the chain has the reasoning but not yet the reaction.

The dates that settle it

Fed dates come from the Federal Reserve calendar. The first date is October 28, but it can't show the diesel deal's effect: that meeting will mostly reflect the 3.7% CPI that came before it. The first readings that could are the EIA outlook and October CPI, both on November 10. Rubio's 60 days, if counted from Friday, run past both of those and cover both of the Fed's remaining meetings this year.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Source: Coindoo