As midterm elections approach, American voters are confronting the tangible effects of President Donald Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, military engagements abroad, and a sweeping domestic spending and tax bill — even as Trump continues to attribute current economic difficulties to his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Trump's tariffs on key industrial inputs — steel, aluminum, and clean energy components — represent an expansion of the Section 232 national security tariffs first imposed during his initial term. These measures have driven up operational costs across the power sector, with those increases ultimately passed on to consumers, according to industry analyses. The administration's military conflict in Iran has similarly elevated oil prices, contributing to sustained increases in gasoline, diesel, heating oil, airfares, and mortgage rates compared with pre-war baselines, as global oil markets contend with heightened volatility.

The 'Big Beautiful Bill' and Its Dual Impact

The Republican-backed "Big Beautiful Bill" (BBB), signed into law in July 2025 with staggered effective dates, has become a focal point of economic debate. The legislation delivered what analysts describe as the largest cuts to food assistance, healthcare, education programs, and student loan services in U.S. history, while simultaneously enacting substantial tax reductions favoring higher-income earners and large corporations. Small businesses and farmers were among those negatively affected, according to policy assessments.

The bill also had a pronounced effect on the luxury sector. By restoring 100% first-year bonus depreciation for qualifying "business assets" — including superyachts and private jets — the legislation reopened a tax incentive that had been scheduled to phase down under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which originally set the full bonus rate to decline by 20 percentage points annually starting in 2023. The BBB's restoration of the full rate prompted a surge in demand from affluent buyers and charter operators seeking to utilize the tax write-off. Superyacht sales in the U.S. rose by over 40% following Trump's first-term tax legislation and have continued to climb under the current administration, according to industry data.

Cuts to SNAP and Medicaid

Despite contracting economic indicators, Trump has characterized the affordability crisis as a "hoax" and a narrative manufactured by Democrats.

On food assistance, the BBB cut approximately $187 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) — the largest reductions in the program's history — with cuts phasing in between 2026 and 2028. SNAP serves roughly 42 million Americans and is widely regarded by economists as one of the most effective federal anti-poverty programs. Expanded work requirements, more frequent recertification processes, and the defunding of SNAP-Ed nutrition programs are projected to reduce SNAP enrollment by an average of 4.7 million people while diminishing nutrition allotments for remaining recipients. Economists anticipate these changes will increase poverty, food insecurity, and hunger in low-income communities.

On healthcare, over 11 million Americans are expected to lose Medicaid eligibility by 2034 due to stricter work-reporting requirements, shorter certification periods, and new copayment requirements for adults living at or near the poverty line. Medicaid is the single largest source of health coverage in the United States, covering more than 70 million people, and serves as the primary payer for nursing home and long-term care services nationally. The law also reduced ACA marketplace open enrollment and eliminated special enrollment periods for low-income individuals. Republican lawmakers have defended the cuts as measures to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse while encouraging workforce participation. Critics note that the reductions fall predominantly on low-income working households, while the benefits accrue to higher earners.

National Debt Trajectory

The national debt rose by $7.8 trillion during Trump's first administration — the third-largest increase relative to the size of the economy of any U.S. presidency. This year, the national debt surpassed $37 trillion, despite significant program cuts, driven by spending on military operations in Iran, immigration enforcement, domestic security infrastructure, and tax reductions. Annual interest payments on the debt now rank among the largest single categories of federal spending.

Political Blame-Shifting and Messaging Strategy

Trump has continued to assign responsibility for current economic conditions to Biden. Speaking to supporters in Michigan, Trump described the affordability problems as "vestiges of the Biden administration" and characterized media coverage of economic concerns as disproportionate, noting: "I'm one day in office, and the fake news goes 'affordability, affordability!'"

Biden inherited a pandemic-era economic crisis in 2021 and oversaw what economists widely regard as a strong economic and labor market recovery. His legislative achievements — including bipartisan infrastructure legislation, semiconductor manufacturing incentives, and domestic industrial policy — represented the most significant federal investments in those areas in approximately half a century.

Rather than directly addressing inflation and economic contraction, the GOP has pivoted to a messaging strategy framing the Democratic Party as aligned with far-left radical agendas. However, recent polling and focus group data suggest this anti-communist messaging has had limited resonance with key voter demographics who are more focused on the rising cost of everyday goods.

In every political debate of this midterm season thus far, Republican candidates have blamed Democrats for economic problems that critics attribute to Republican-led policies. The outcome of the midterms may ultimately hinge on whether voters attribute current economic conditions to the policies of the incumbent administration or to its predecessor.

In the meantime, superyacht sales continue their upward trajectory.

Sabrina Haake is a political analyst and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in First and Fourteenth Amendment defense. She writes the free Substack newsletter, The Haake Take.

Source: Alternet