WASHINGTON — Rebecca Myers lives in one of the nation's most hotly contested congressional districts, and tariffs were on her mind when she voted early and in person in Suffolk, Virginia, in late September, weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3.

The 44-year-old trained social worker said she and her husband, who recently retired after 25 years in the U.S. Navy, are raising two children, ages 7 and 9, and have forgone a family vacation to save money.

"I'm an educated person, but I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in the economy. All I can say is I know my family's finances very well and I know everything we spend money on has gone up in price," Myers said. "I understand some of it is due to the tariffs, some of it is due to the war in Iran," she told States Newsroom in an Oct. 1 interview.

Myers is among a growing number of voters taking their anger about affordability to the polls this midterm election and blaming President Donald Trump's tariffs as a culprit for rising expenses. Public opinion surveys bear out that she is far from alone in making the connection.

"The real top line is that for maybe the first time ever, tariffs are a salient issue at the ballot box," said Scott Lincicome of the libertarian Cato Institute. "You know, normally trade is a boring issue that nobody really thinks about or cares about."

A Swing District Voter's Choice

Myers in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District and voted for Elaine Luria, the Democratic candidate and former U.S. representative who is challenging the incumbent Republican, Rep. Jen Kiggans.

Kiggans, Myers said, has supported Trump's "MAGA agenda," including the tariffs. Kiggans' campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Organizers are targeting districts like Myers', where Democrats could flip seats.

"We talk to families every day who are struggling with the things that they need to take care of themselves and their families," said Sondra Goldschein, executive director of the Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy.

Her organization, which also runs a political action committee that endorses Democrats, recently hosted a "tariff-proof" cooking class in Chesapeake, Virginia, to draw attention to the issue. Attendees received tips such as substituting chicken for beef, buying domestic produce, and choosing frozen over canned goods — categories all affected by Trump's ever-changing taxes on imports.

Goldschein and national organizers are targeting voters not only in Virginia but in Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

"This Republican-backed Congress and all of the members that come from states like this have really turned their backs on working families," Goldschein told States Newsroom during an interview ahead of the cooking class.

States Bear Costs in the Tens of Billions

In a state-by-state breakdown of tariffs, the conservative National Taxpayers Union Foundation and Trade Partnership Worldwide found that the 10 states most affected by Trump's tariffs — in the tens of billions of dollars — are California, Texas, Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Ohio and Tennessee.

Virginia, where business owners have paid a collective $6.2 billion in tariffs ordered by Trump since January 2025, ranked 18th.

Nearly all of those states are in the midst of fierce battles for U.S. Senate or House seats as tariffs emerge as what critics predict will be a major factor in the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. The overlap between the states bearing the heaviest tariff costs and the states hosting the closest contests gives the affordability debate added weight in a midterm vote — the first nationwide election of Trump's second term — in which every U.S. House seat and about a third of Senate seats are on the ballot.

New research shows Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs on imported goods have cost business owners and consumers billions of dollars.

"The typical estimate has it being in the neighborhood of $1,000-plus per year of additional (consumer) costs, and maybe accounting for somewhere between one-half and 1 percentage point of the inflation rate," said Kimberly Clausing, an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "That doesn't sound like a lot, but if someone came along and gave you a tax increase of $1,100, which is about what this is, you'd feel it."

Clausing and fellow economist Maurice Obstfeld at the nonpartisan think tank reviewed 13 academic papers from 2025 and 2026 on Trump's tariffs and the pass-through of their costs to consumers and businesses.

"What makes it a little confusing and hard to measure is that there's been a lot of uncertainty about the trade policy, and so it's come in spurts and reversals and restarts," Clausing said, adding that some businesses may absorb the new taxes on imports at first but then eventually raise prices later.

"It's not like you raise the tariff on day one and (on) day two all the prices have fully adjusted. It's a little slower than that, but you do see absolutely evidence that with time the tariffs are being passed through to consumers, and very little evidence that foreigners are bearing a significant burden," she said.

Policy Shifted More Than 50 Times

Trump's tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since he began his second term in January 2025, according to the Tax Foundation, a think tank that advocates for a slimmed-down tax code and "policies that lead to greater economic growth." As of Sept. 10, the foundation estimated that Trump's tariffs will cost each household an average of $820 in 2026.

While Trump campaigned on the promise that other countries would pay for his tariffs and repeated that vow after taking office again, economists have documented that the claim has always been false. Tariffs are taxes that American businesses and individuals pay when they retrieve shipments of items purchased from other countries. The tariffed goods span hundreds of categories, from machine parts to food.

The president's early round of "emergency" and "reciprocal" tariffs imposed on goods worldwide in April 2025 was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in February. Since then, Trump has used three other statutes to justify charging import taxes on goods.

Which States and Sectors Are Hit Hardest

The breakdown produced by the National Taxpayers Union found the biggest effects in states and industries scattered across America. The sectors hit hardest in the top 10 states include automobiles and auto parts; steel, aluminum and other metals; clothes and shoes; and food and beverages. Because the affected categories span both big-ticket purchases like vehicles and everyday goods like clothing and food, the added import taxes can surface across a household's regular spending.

Businesses in Michigan, for example, have paid an extra $23 billion on imports, largely cars and trucks. Meanwhile, the food and beverage sector was hit hardest in Florida, where importers have paid an extra $11 billion since Trump began implementing new tariffs in 2025 through Aug. 4, 2026, according to the conservative organization's analysis, which drew on Census Bureau import data.

Bryan Riley, director of the National Taxpayers Union's free trade initiative, described Trump's second-term tariffs as "a very costly policy."

"If you're in a state like Georgia, big tariff costs are mainly because there's a lot of auto manufacturing in Georgia, surprisingly to many people. And then that's not going to be the case in New Mexico, which doesn't have a lot of auto manufacturing, so (there are) less tariff costs and different categories hit in each state," Riley said.

The analysis did not account for any court-mandated refunds the Trump administration must pay after the Supreme Court deemed the president's initial emergency tariffs illegal. Those refunds to businesses are not passed on to consumers.

Polling Shows Frustration Deepening

Polls show voters are growing increasingly frustrated with Trump's handling of the economy as his approval ratings plunge, and many of those surveyed blame the administration's trade policy for the rising cost of living.

Overall, 69% of American adults, and 52% of Republicans, say Trump is not meeting his promise to fix the cost of living, according to an Associated Press/NC nationwide poll of just over 2,100 voters conducted Sept. 24-28. On trade and tariffs specifically, the survey found that 68% of respondents disapprove of Trump's trade negotiations with other countries, and 64% think the tariffs have gone too far.

Lincicome of the Cato Institute said it is a "shocker" that tariffs are becoming a mainstream concern among voters. In a survey of just over 4,100 voters in mid-August, Cato and Morning Consult found that 3 in 4 participants said they will consider tariffs when casting their midterm ballots. The survey also revealed that 74% of respondents — 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats — blamed Trump's tariffs for increased prices on items they buy at the store.

Democrats Seize on the Issue

Lincicome, vice president of general economics at Cato, pointed to his home state of North Carolina, where Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor now vying for an open U.S. Senate seat, has made opposition to tariffs a centerpiece of his affordability agenda.

"It's pretty clear from both the polling and Democrats in not just North Carolina but Georgia and Iowa and other places (candidates) are really chomping at the bit to run on cost of living, and to say they're going to nix all these tariffs. ... Even in places like Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to win," Lincicome said.

Brown, a Democrat who served in the U.S. Senate from 2007 to 2025, was "one of the most consistent protectionists" of domestic manufacturing in the upper chamber, Lincicome said.

"Now all of a sudden he's running on nixing the tariffs," Lincicome said. "Now he's not nearly as vocal as somebody like Cooper or (James) Talarico in Texas or Jon Ossoff in Georgia. He's still saying he's going to get rid of these tariffs, and that's a pretty shocking change."

White House Defends the Record

The White House defended Trump's record on the economy and said he has "skillfully" imposed tariffs.

"President Trump signed the largest working-class tax cuts in history, lowered the cost of prescription drugs, sealed the border, drove violent crime to the lowest level in nearly a century, unleashed an energy revolution, added more than a million private-sector jobs, and sent Americans' 401(k)s climbing to record highs," said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers.

"The President skillfully used tariffs to renegotiate almost 20 trade deals and level the playing field for American workers and businesses. The Trump administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world's biggest and best consumer market," Rogers said.

Those competing claims about who ultimately bears the cost of tariffs will now be weighed by voters, with early balloting already underway ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.