President Donald Trump has replaced White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, marking the first major personnel change to follow the Republican Party's defeat in the midterm elections. Miller, a senior adviser throughout Trump's first administration who currently serves as deputy chief of staff for policy, takes over a position that oversees White House staff, manages the president's schedule and controls access to the president. The move has raised new questions about which other officials could leave the administration — and how much difference such changes would actually make.

According to a report by Newsweek, FBI Director Kash Patel, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy are among the administration figures worth watching as Trump works with a reduced Republican Congress that can no longer reliably serve as a White House rubber stamp.

“The personnel questions extend well beyond the chief of staff's office,” Newsweek reported. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio is facing renewed speculation about his political future and a possible 2028 presidential campaign. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has come under pressure amid questions about the administration's Iran policy, and is facing articles of impeachment when lawmakers return to Congress next week. Even Vice President JD Vance has begun publicly distinguishing himself from the president over the war.”

Newsweek noted that the answers are difficult to foresee, citing the Trump White House's history of misdirection in its public messaging, directed at friendly outlets such as Fox News as well as mainstream news organizations.

In a Tuesday night interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier, Trump was asked directly whether he planned to make changes to his Cabinet following the election results. “No, I don't think so. Had nothing to do with my Cabinet,” Trump replied.

When Newsweek asked the White House on Thursday whether Trump had complete confidence in Wiles or intended to review other positions, White House spokeswoman Danielle Alvarez said, “The self-serving individuals peddling stories to undermine the President and his team are only exposing their own personal ambitions.”

John T. Woolley, professor emeritus of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and co-director of the American Presidency Project, identified Hegseth, Patel, former White House adviser Peter Navarro, Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as officials who could potentially come under scrutiny. Woolley cautioned that any replacements would now require confirmation by a Congress less aligned with the White House, and that such appointments “would have to signal some policy changes.” The chief of staff post itself is a presidential staff position that does not require Senate confirmation, unlike the Cabinet seats Woolley flagged.

Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a scholar who studies presidential staffing and turnover, said high turnover after second-term midterm defeats is relatively rare, largely because it is ineffective at changing public opinion. President Ronald Reagan removed Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger after the Iran-Contra affair, and President George W. Bush asked Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to leave amid the fallout from the Iraq War, but dismissing controversial aides typically does not translate into public support.

“There's research, political science research, that shows that staff purges and firing people, it doesn't change presidents' approval ratings,” Tenpas said, adding that such changes may carry symbolic value, particularly when presidents “want to demonstrate to members of Congress that they are responding to concerns.”

In Trump's case, however, the president has little prospect of “winning back the public,” and the shake-up may instead reflect an effort to remove aides perceived as liabilities and reduce “controversy ahead of congressional investigations.”