President Donald Trump appears to be undermining the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections while simultaneously preparing a rationale to deflect any blame should the party suffer losses, according to an analysis published in The i Paper.

Midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the party controlling the White House, and the president's party has lost House seats in virtually every midterm cycle over the past half-century. Baxter's analysis suggests Trump's current posture risks amplifying that pattern rather than mitigating it.

In the piece, published Sunday, journalist Sarah Baxter argued that Trump remains dedicated to settling scores with perceived adversaries — "whatever it costs, whatever it takes" — even as those preoccupations continue to erode the GOP's electoral position. Baxter wrote that Trump's "dastardly plans for revenge are going wrong," while he also remains intent on "glorifying himself with grandiose building projects in Washington," creating a combination of "renovation and revenge" that crowds out attention to voters' everyday concerns.

"Somewhere in... Trump's brain there ought to be room for the kitchen table concerns of voters on the economy, inflation, fuel prices — the stuff of everyday life," Baxter wrote. "They're feeling crowded out by his petty fixations. Monthly job figures have just been revised downwards, there has been no sign of a promised World Cup hospitality and leisure industry bump, and the Iran war has passed the five-month mark. According to a Quinnipac poll, 68 per cent of voters think Trump is not focused enough on addressing their problems."

Baxter noted that Trump's priorities appear to be influencing other elected Republicans. Earlier in the week, the Senate Homeland Security Committee voted to hold Dr. Anthony Fauci in contempt after he invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination at a recent hearing. Fauci said his refusal to answer questions was driven by Republicans' fixation on retaliating against him for COVID-19-era restrictions. Baxter characterized the effort as "all a ridiculous waste of time."

"Asking Trump to stop his petty behaviour is like asking him to stop breathing," Baxter continued. "His thirst for revenge has previously served him well in business and politics. The MAGA movement loves him for it. 'I am your justice… I am your retribution,' he vowed during his campaign to take back the White House."

She added: "But the Midterms are a chance for voters to say 'what about us?' They will be asking if the US is heading in the right direction two years into Trump's presidency."

Baxter also pointed to recent remarks Trump made in an interview with Punchbowl News, which she suggested preview the explanation he would use if Republicans fare poorly at the ballot box — a distancing strategy that, if executed, would run counter to the traditional dynamic in which voters hold the president's party accountable for national conditions.

"They're angry at Republicans, but they're not angry at me," Trump said.

"Nothing is ever his fault," Baxter concluded.