Diesel prices are holding at record highs above $6 per gallon as the war in Iran continues, but energy analysts and trucking industry groups say the Trump administration's newest response amounts to political posturing rather than a practical fix.

This week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order deferring taxes on red-dyed diesel, a fuel normally reserved for farmers and other off-road users. Because the fuel is exempt from highway fuel taxes, using it on public roads is illegal, and the red dye gives road inspectors a way to identify truckers who evade taxes by burning it on highways. The stakes reach well beyond the pump: diesel powers the heavy trucks that haul the bulk of American freight, making fuel one of the largest line items in a carrier's operating budget.

The deferral, in place through the end of the year, would in theory expand the pool of fuel available to truckers by temporarily lifting a tax burden of 24.4 cents per gallon—the federal excise tax applied to diesel sold for highway use.

Rather than welcoming the change, experts and industry stakeholders see little upside. In their view, the move is an attempt by the administration to save face as the president's approval ratings sink. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published this week put Trump's approval at 32%, with Americans naming the cost of living as their top concernn
Trump has also floated suspending the federal gas tax ahead of the midterm elections. That step would require congressional approval and has drawn widespread criticism over the prospect of adding to the federal debt, since the lost revenue would have to be replaced elsewhere in the budget. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, described the red-dyed diesel deferral as a way for the White House to bypass Congress while appearing to address rocketing fuel costs.

"This dyed diesel waiver—it doesn't add supply globally. It doesn't improve the reasons that have led to high prices," De Haan told Fortune. "It would be more akin to lipstick on a pig."

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement to Fortune that the executive action "will quickly cut diesel costs and put money directly back into the pockets of American truckers," saving them more than $100 per fuel refill.

The ramifications of a red-dyed diesel tax deferral

The central concern among industry stakeholders is that a deferral is not the same as a tax break, meaning truckers or drivers could still have to pay for using red-dyed diesel at a later date.

"We do not expect most reputable diesel retailers and fuel marketers to do this," the Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of America and the National Association of Truck Stop Owners said in a joint statement to their members. "First, the tax is still owed, so there's limited upside."

There is precedent for that wariness: federal agencies have loosened dyed-diesel rules before, but typically only as short-term emergency measures, such as post-hurricane disaster relief—far narrower in scope than a nationwide deferral running through the end of the year.

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation Group, said the deferrals have left truckers on edge because the taxes could still come due down the line. Trump has asked the Treasury to look for ways to eliminate the deferral, but the agency has not provided any guidance.

"You have an unusual situation where they're basically saying, 'We're going to try to not enforce a tax for a period of time, and we're going to hope that Congress later blesses that action,'" Russell told Fortune. "And if not, then we might be on the hook, or we might create a situation where gas stations need to pay that tax back to the government later.' So it creates a lot of uncertainty."

Even setting aside the potential tax concerns, red-dyed diesel accounts for only a fraction of the total fuel—about 30%—used by commercial vehicles, De Haan argued. The fuel is typically confined to specific contexts such as farming and is not widely stocked at truck stops. The White House has said more than 4,000 retailers in the U.S. distribute dyed diesel.

"It's rarely a truck stop fuel," he said. "Even if you wanted to find this, it may be kind of like a diamond in the rough to find."

Solving the U.S. fuel supply problems

Analysts agreed that a lasting fix for the U.S. fuel shortage would require broader geopolitical stabilization, such as an end to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Russell said that if the worst of the conflict in the Middle East were over, bottlenecks could ease—and combined with the few disruptions to U.S. domestic oil production resulting from a mellow hurricane season so far, diesel prices could ease on their own.

"The real solution to this situation is ultimately the supply and demand in the market," Russell said. "It would not be because of this measure with red diesel. It would be a result of the improving situation and normal seasonal dynamics."

De Haan, however, fears a potential future spike in gas prices if Ukraine repeats its attack on Russian oil refineries—which is what Trump has attributed rising gas prices to—and suggested the best bet to increase global oil supply is for the president to keep his word to end the war in Ukraine. Otherwise, the red-dyed diesel tax deferral would have limited impact because actual fuel supply would not increase.

"Aside from solving the underlying geopolitical issues, I don't know that there's a great, quick win here," De Haan said. "The president is scrambling ahead of the midterms to do something, but I just don't know that this is really a needle mover in my mind."

How the situation develops will likely turn on markers already in motion: whether Treasury issues guidance on administering the deferral, whether Congress moves to bless the relief ahead of the midterms, the course of the wars in Iran and Ukraine, and how the remainder of hurricane season treats U.S. oil production.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.