Energy policy experts say a new pact under which Russia would boost diesel shipments to the United States over the coming months is unlikely to make a meaningful dent in painfully high prices at the pump or anywhere else.

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Russia would immediately supply the U.S. with more than 300,000 tons of diesel. That volume would be followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November, and then 4 million more tons at some point after that.

The agreement marks a stark reversal for Washington, which has banned imports of Russian oil since the start of Russia's war with Ukraine in 2022. It also lands at a moment when the U.S. economy and American consumers are being squeezed by a global rise in oil prices driven by the eight-month-long U.S. war with Iran.

Diesel prices have shattered records in recent weeks, ratcheting up inflation across a broad swath of consumer goods. The U.S. national average price for a gallon of diesel hit record high of $6.53 on Sept. 22, according to motor club AAA. It stood at nearly $6.28 a gallon on Friday, up from almost $3.68 this time last year. Diesel prices have hit records in Europe, too.

Because diesel powers many freight and delivery networks, higher prices translate into more expensive transportation for a long list of everyday goods. Some businesses have already passed the steeper costs along to consumers in the form of added fees on online orders and packages sent through the mail.

Shoppers may feel growing sticker shock, particularly in the grocery aisle. Perishable foods such as meat and produce face some of the most immediate strain from expensive diesel, since they must be hauled in and restocked frequently — or may be harvested with farm equipment powered by the fuel.

The surge has turned up the heat on Trump and the Republican Party to address rising prices ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The president's approval ratings on the economy have hit a new low, according to an AP-NORC poll released last week, as the Iran war and his trade battles have increased U.S. prices for oil and other goods.

Experts Doubt the Supply Boost Will Move Prices

Energy policy analysts on Friday expressed doubts that an increase in Russian diesel supply would significantly affect oil prices, whether in the U.S. or globally.

"It's kind of shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic," said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a nonpartisan research institution focused on energy and economics. "If we get diesel from Russia, basically it means that their existing customers are not going to get it and they'll have to go somewhere else, and that will keep the price basically where it is now," Lynch said.

The White House may be counting on the move to deliver some relief at the pump for U.S. truckers, ranchers and farmers who have been hit hard by rising diesel prices, but that outcome is far from guaranteed.

"The best you could hope for is a tiny dip in prices locally in places like the New York-New Jersey area, Philadelphia maybe," Lynch said. "It just means that the oil is just going to be shuffled around and it's not really going to change the price globally or across the U.S."

Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, said that if Russia — which in July moved to ban diesel exports due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries — now believes it is able to resume diesel exports, that would help stabilize global diesel prices.

Even so, prices are likely to remain elevated overall, because a large share of refining capacity in the Middle East is unavailable to the world market due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil and fuel shipments, from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

"Refined products like diesel are still barely half of prewar levels," Sternoff said. "So, even if there were to be some follow-through from the Russians to put a little extra diesel into the world markets, it might take the edge off of prices, but it will not substantially lower them." Under the announced timetable, the 500,000-ton tranche is due in November — the same month as the midterm elections — while the largest batch, 4 million tons, carries no set delivery date.

A Win for Moscow

While the Trump-Putin deal probably won't have much of an impact on prices for U.S. diesel consumers, it will benefit Russia, said Clayton Seigle, an energy strategist and expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Seigle noted that Russia is trying to offload its summer-grade diesel in exchange for the heavier winter and arctic grades — formulated to keep flowing in freezing temperatures — that it will need in the coming months.

"I don't think it'll be enough to materially lower prices in the United States or Europe, but it does certainly let Moscow off the hook in terms of revenue squeeze," he said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.