Trump Pauses Plans for Larger Iran Strike as Pentagon Warns on Patriot Missile Stocks

U.S. President Donald Trump has paused plans for a larger attack on Iran after military leaders warned that another major round of fighting could sharply drain U.S. supplies of Patriot interceptors and other air defense weapons, according to the New York Times.

The White House has not ruled out further force, but it has put plans for a sharp escalation on hold while officials review the military risks. The Pentagon is already managing reduced stocks of defensive missiles across the Middle East, where U.S. forces, bases and partners remain exposed to Iranian missiles and drones.

The warning was delivered by Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Caine told officials that the United States could resume large combat operations against Iran, but doing so would significantly reduce the interceptors held by U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military missions across the region.

Those weapons are needed to protect U.S. troops, bases and regional partners. Central Command must also keep enough interceptors available for any further Iranian attacks on U.S. positions and allies. Patriot systems are designed to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, making their missile stocks a key constraint in any campaign where Iran and allied groups can launch repeated salvos.

The decision followed a Friday meeting between Trump, senior advisers and Cabinet members. The discussion covered the risk of a wider Middle East war, the security of Gulf partners that could face Iranian retaliation, rising fuel costs, pressure on the global economy and potential refugee flows. Officials also considered whether heavier attacks would push Tehran toward negotiations. Two officials briefed on the meeting said very few people around Trump supported the escalation plan.

Last Friday, three American service members were killed in Jordan after a ballistic missile passed through U.S. defenses during an Iranian barrage of missiles and drones.

One senior U.S. official expressed doubt that another intense bombing campaign would bring Iran back to the negotiating table. Diplomatic contacts have already broken down, and the latest U.S. attacks have not stopped Tehran’s military operations.

Trump has spent nearly five months weighing how far to take the conflict while also trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s closure of the strait has blocked a key route for global energy shipments. Renewed fighting in recent weeks has revived concerns about supply shortages and pushed gasoline prices higher. The waterway is a narrow chokepoint for crude oil and liquefied natural gas moving out of the Persian Gulf, so disruption there can quickly become a concern for energy buyers far beyond the region.

The Trump administration is also concerned that a drawn-out war could strain relations with Gulf governments whose cities, military bases, ports and energy sites are within reach of Iranian missiles.

White House Communications Director Steven Cheung said Trump “prefers a diplomatic solution” but still has every option available if Iran continues attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or targets U.S. allies. Cheung also said Tehran should seek a deal after facing serious sanctions and repeated military attacks. He cautioned that Iranian leaders understand what could happen if talks collapse.

Iran says it will pause attacks if U.S. strikes remain halted

Iran says it will keep its weapons quiet as long as the United States does the same. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran would not launch fresh attacks while Trump maintains the current break in American airstrikes.

The Pentagon stopped its bombing campaign late Friday after striking Iran for 13 consecutive nights. No American strikes were reported on Saturday or Sunday, and Iran also avoided launching attacks during those two days. Before the pause, Tehran had responded to each night of U.S. bombing by targeting nearby countries that host American military bases.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told Fox News that Trump wanted to give negotiations more time. Waltz said the pause was intended to create space for talks, though he did not provide details about possible meetings or new proposals.

The Iranian official said Tehran was following a simple rule: if Washington attacks, Iran will respond; if Washington stops, Iran will also stop. The official added that this position had already been conveyed to the United States.

A senior Trump administration official delivered a similar message on Saturday, saying Trump still preferred diplomacy but had shown Iran the cost of refusing serious talks.

Tehran remains deeply skeptical of Washington’s intentions. The Iranian official said there was more distrust than hope inside the government. Iranian leaders do not believe the halt means the United States has changed its demands or softened its position.

The official said Tehran views the pause as a short-term battlefield decision rather than a genuine diplomatic opening. Iranian officials believe Washington may restart strikes if talks fail or if Trump decides the pause has served its purpose.

That suspicion reflects years of failed negotiations, sanctions, military threats and broken agreements between the two countries. Tehran believes it has been misled by previous U.S. governments and is treating the latest pause with extreme caution.

The U.S. military said Saturday that its naval blockade against Iran “remains in full effect.” It did not explain why American forces stopped after 13 straight nights of increasingly heavy strikes.

Iran accuses Ukraine after Caspian Sea ship blast

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday that Tehran would respond after a Ukrainian strike hit an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea. Iran said the blast killed one crew member and injured another person.

Araqchi discussed the incident in separate phone calls with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He later shared details of those talks on X.

Lavrov sent condolences over the sailor’s death. He said Araqchi had thanked officials in Astrakhan, the Russian region where the vessel began its trip, for assisting the surviving crew after the explosion.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Araqchi also called for an end to what he described as reckless actions by the government in Kyiv.

During the same conversation, Araqchi updated Lavrov on Iran’s ongoing diplomatic contacts. Those talks are focused on lowering tensions across the Middle East while fighting involving Iran and the United States remains paused.

The pause in American strikes did not prevent the conflict from spreading over the weekend. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi energy sites along the Red Sea coast. Iran also accused Ukraine of targeting the Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, adding another dispute while U.S. aircraft remained quiet.

Houthis attack Saudi energy facilities

The Houthis launched an attack on facilities owned by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) in Jizan and Yanbu, the group’s military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Reuters footage showed a large cloud of smoke rising from the direction of Aramco’s refinery in Jizan.

Greek security officials said two ballistic missiles aimed at oil facilities in Yanbu were intercepted by a U.S.-made Patriot battery. Greek forces operate the system inside Saudi Arabia under an agreement with Riyadh.

Yanbu is Saudi Arabia’s main oil port on the Red Sea. It has become more important because tankers can use that route to avoid the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The refinery in Jizan, a Red Sea city near Yemen, can process up to 400,000 barrels per day. The attack also underscored why Red Sea infrastructure is being watched closely while Hormuz remains blocked, because alternative export routes depend on ports and refineries staying operational.

Crypto market rises as smaller tokens outperform

Money moved further into smaller tokens as the broader cryptocurrency market rose 0.96% to $2.30 trillion.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.87% and traded around $64,800. Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.13% to $1,910, while BNB added 1.23% to reach $573.

Most areas of the market finished between flat and 3% higher. Meme coins stood out with a 5% increase, while the category labeled “Others” was little changed.

Altcoins showed stronger performance. The Altcoin Season Index reached 56, while Bitcoin’s market share eased to 58.67%. Traders were putting more capital into coins that can rise faster but also carry greater risk.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) became one of the day’s most notable movers after climbing more than 36%. A large token burn helped fuel the rally and drew renewed attention to meme coins.

Trading volume in SHIB and other top performers will show whether that trend continues. A decline in the Altcoin Season Index would indicate money moving back into Bitcoin.

The derivatives market also appeared less crowded. Bitcoin liquidations fell 52%, while short sellers accounted for $3.15 million of the wiped-out positions. That left fewer bearish trades hanging over the market.

Funding rates remained positive but continued to cool. A drop below zero would suggest traders are starting to build fresh bets against the market.

Bitcoin needs to remain above $64,500. Traders are also waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28 and 29, which could quickly shift risk appetite across crypto. Digital assets have often traded like other risk-sensitive markets around interest-rate decisions, because borrowing costs and liquidity expectations can affect demand for speculative assets.

The total crypto market value is near its seven-day average of $2.22 trillion. A strong move through that area could send it toward $2.26 trillion. The downside level to watch is $2.21 trillion; losing that support could drag the market back toward its 30-day average near $2.17 trillion.

Michael Burry says Tesla short remains open

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has continued to fall, making Michael Burry’s short position against the electric vehicle company more profitable without him taking further action. Burry said Friday that he had not closed the position.

“I have not covered my Tesla short. It gets smaller all on its own,” Burry wrote on Substack.

Tesla fell 15% on Thursday after quarterly results disappointed investors. The stock lost another 3% on Friday, bringing its July decline to roughly 26%. Shares were trading near $308. Burry first disclosed the position in late June, when Tesla stood at $416.22.

Burry is also increasing his bearish exposure to the broader technology sector. He expanded negative positions tied to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH).

His Nvidia trade includes a large holding of put options, which rise in value when the stock falls. Burry also still owns puts against the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) and remains positioned against Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR).

Burry said his Nvidia view is tied to how artificial intelligence projects are being funded. He argued that purchases of AI chips and computing systems are not being driven mainly by customers paying directly for useful products. Instead, he believes a large share of current and planned spending is supported through financing arrangements kept outside company balance sheets.

Burry described the structure as circular, with money passing through connected businesses and funding arrangements that create demand for more AI equipment.

Earnings season runs ahead of Wall Street forecasts

The latest earnings season is running well ahead of Wall Street’s earlier expectations. So far, 27% of S&P 500 companies have released second-quarter figures, and most have beaten analyst forecasts.

Data from FactSet (NYSE: FDS) shows that 86% of those companies reported profit per share above forecasts. Revenue has also held up, with 80% reporting sales above expectations.

Combined profit growth for the quarter has reached 37.9% compared with the same period last year. At the end of June, analysts expected 23.2% growth. If the current rate holds through the rest of reporting season, it would be the strongest annual profit increase since the third quarter of 2021.

The stronger number comes from two sources. Several companies posted much better results than analysts expected, while Wall Street also raised estimates for businesses that have not yet reported.

Profit forecasts have improved across most of the market. Since June 30, analysts have raised earnings estimates for nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors.

Companies have provided a mixed but relatively balanced picture of the third quarter. Eleven S&P 500 firms have raised profit guidance, while nine have warned that earnings could come in below current estimates.

Wall Street is entering a packed week, with several major events due within days. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will release results after the closing bell on Wednesday and Thursday.

Their reports will arrive after investors punished Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) this week. The company posted strong headline figures, but its heavy spending plans and negative free cash flow rattled traders. The selloff also pulled down the broader market.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) are also scheduled to report. Investors will watch how much the largest technology companies plan to spend on artificial intelligence, data centers, chips and cloud systems.

The market has recently treated companies paying for AI expansion much worse than businesses selling the hardware. Large cloud operators have declined as costs climbed, while semiconductor stocks have continued to gain.

That split may not last indefinitely. Chipmakers depend on continued orders from the same technology giants that are now facing pressure over their budgets. Any sign that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft or Apple plans to slow AI spending could also affect semiconductor companies.

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSEARCA: MAGS) has lost more than 5% this week, while major semiconductor funds have remained in positive territory. Investors still expect chip demand to remain strong, but the decline in large technology stocks has added risk to that trade.

Markets will also turn to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Officials will announce their latest interest-rate decision while policymakers and Wall Street analysts remain divided over what comes next.

Most forecasts still point to a rate increase in September. Futures markets, however, show a 35% chance that the Fed could raise its main borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage points next week, based on the CME FedWatch Tool operated by CME Group (NASDAQ: CME).

The earnings reports and the Fed decision will arrive as confidence in large technology stocks is already weakening. Strong results could calm selling, while higher spending, weaker cash flow or an earlier rate increase could add pressure.