Republicans are heading into Tuesday's midterm elections facing the prospect of "utter defeat" — and the blame goes to President Donald Trump, according to a new Washington Post analysis.

Charles Lane, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that while election outcomes are rarely attributable to a single factor, 2026 could be the exception because of Trump's "dysfunctional one-man rule" over both the government and his own party. The races described in the column put that argument to a test across several fronts: the administration's foreign and trade policies, the cost of energy, and Trump's influence over Republican nominees.

A strong starting position

As the column observes, the GOP's standing looked solid when the year began. With most of the Senate action concentrated in states Trump won in 2024, Republicans were well placed to keep or add to their 53-47 majority. In January, Trump's approval rating stood at roughly 44 percent, and the party could cite low unemployment, gas prices and crime as evidence of solid growth.

Foreign policy and energy costs

The turning point, in Lane's telling, came when Trump made war on Iran with Israel, without approval from Congress or his advisers. Lane writes that the president may have had a worthy goal in ridding the world of Iran's nuclear threat, but did little to make the case to the public.

Iran did not go down, and instead set about disrupting energy markets. The resulting rise in the cost of gas and diesel is felt most in rural red states such as Iowa, Kansas and Alaska, where Democrats have a shot at Senate and gubernatorial seats.

Tariffs and trade

Trump has also seen to it that the trade war takes its toll, the column argues. A 50 percent charge on $20 billion of Canadian imports is hurting in Maine and Michigan, two Senate battlegrounds.

Candidate selection under fire

Lane is particularly hard on Trump for how he has gone about picking candidates, comparing the president to Caligula, the Roman emperor who wanted to put his horse in the consulship.

In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis will not run after Trump put the word out that he would support a primary opponent; Democrat Roy Cooper is now ahead of Trump's nominee, Michael Whatley. In Texas, Trump threw his weight behind Ken Paxton — who has been in the news for scandals — over Sen. John Cornyn, and Paxton is having trouble with James Talarico. In Georgia, Trump's man, Rep. Mike Collins, is being soundly beaten by Sen. Jon Ossoff in the polls.

The bottom line

With Trump's approval numbers at the lowest of his political career, Lane says it is only a matter of how big the Democrats' House majority is, and the party is in a position to take the Senate. The column concedes that Republicans received a late reprieve from a scandal involving alleged ballot-stacking by Democrats in Alaska, but even so, the GOP would have to count on a big polling mistake to hang on to 50 seats.

Lane does not let congressional Republicans off easy, writing: "Trump owns this potential debacle. But it's also on the ever-subservient Republicans in Congress themselves. They had the power to counter his most misguided policies, or at least to try — just not the guts."