Official Trump ($TRUMP) dropped roughly 13.6% in 24 hours to trade near $1.27 on November 5, after a slide to $1.22 pushed the memecoin to a record low and erased the last of its late-summer rally. The sell-off coincided with a large on-chain move by Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT), whose wallets transferred 4,259 BTC — worth about $343.7 million — to Crypto.com from addresses tagged as collateral for the company's convertible notes, less than four weeks before holders of those notes become eligible to demand early cash repayment.

The token and the company are legally separate. $TRUMP was issued through Fight Fight Fight LLC and gives holders no claim on Trump Media's balance sheet. Traders, however, have long treated Trump-branded assets as a single basket, and news that the president's media company had moved almost all of its pledged Bitcoin landed on a token that was already falling. The decline also came one day after Democrats swept the US midterm elections, a result that hit Trump-linked tokens across the market.

A 24% Weekly Drop With Heavy Volume

The candle that carried $TRUMP from around $1.60 into the low $1.20s was the biggest of the current decline and came with one of the largest volume readings since the August rally — a pattern that points to active selling rather than a quiet market drifting lower. The token has lost about 24% over seven days, and its market capitalization has shrunk to roughly $357.8 million.

Each bounce since the late-August peak above $3 has stalled lower than the one before it, and for most of the past month the price has stayed under the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a line that tracks the average closing price of the last 50 days with more weight on recent sessions.

Nothing on the Chart Between $1.22 and $1

The base of the Fibonacci retracement drawn from the August high sits at $1.219, matching this week's low and standing as the only nearby support on the daily chart. Fibonacci retracements project potential support and resistance levels by applying standard ratios to a prior price move — here, the rally into the August peak above $3. A daily close below that level would leave $1.00 as the next obvious reference, because the chart shows no trading between the two points.

On the upside, the $1.50 to $1.65 band where $TRUMP traded until this week now forms the first ceiling. Above it sits a tighter cluster at $1.78 to $1.80, where the 50-day EMA meets the 0.236 Fibonacci level, while the 200-day EMA at $2.31 still slopes downward and marks the longer-term trend.

Oversold, but Momentum Has Not Turned Yet

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 27.85, meaning down days have far outweighed up days over the past two weeks. Readings below 30 often come before short rebounds because sellers start to run out, but in a steady downtrend the indicator can stay there for weeks while the price keeps falling. The RSI is also well below its own average of 37.18, so momentum has not yet begun to turn.

4,259 BTC Leave the Convertible-Note Collateral Wallets

Blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence shows two transfers — of 2,140.03 BTC and 2,119.31 BTC — leaving Trump Media wallets for a Crypto.com address at around 02:17 UTC. Both originated from addresses labelled “2028 Convertible Notes Collateral.” The combined total almost exactly matches the 4,260.73 BTC that Trump Media reported as pledged against its convertible notes at the end of June. The company has said those coins cannot be withdrawn or distributed except as the debt agreements allow.

On-chain records show only where the Bitcoin went. When Trump Media launched its Bitcoin treasury in 2025, it chose Crypto.com as one of two custodians — companies that safeguard digital assets on behalf of institutions — alongside Anchorage Digital, so a transfer to the exchange could reflect a custody change, collateral management or a sale. After similar transfers in May and August, a company spokesperson told reporters the coins had been moved and not sold. Later on-chain data showed the coins moving on into a Crypto.com-labelled cold wallet — an offline storage address — which points more toward custody than an immediate sale, though it does not rule one out.

Source: Arkham Intelligence

Trump Media Lost $360M on Crypto in Six Months

$TRUMP has no revenue, pays no dividend and has no tie to Trump Media's assets — the classic profile of a memecoin, a token whose value rests on brand attention rather than cash-generating operations. Its price depends almost entirely on how much traders want exposure to the Trump brand at a given moment, which makes it sensitive to news about the family's other crypto ventures — and Trump Media's results have been weak. The company booked about $360.6 million in losses on digital assets in the first half of 2026, and it reported a second-quarter net loss of $238.1 million on revenue of $1.7 million, mostly from unrealized declines in its investments. Weak results at the president's listed company give speculators in a Trump-themed token little to point to when the price falls.

The token also carries a heavy supply overhang, meaning a large share of coins sits with insiders who could sell. Trump-affiliated entities control most of the $TRUMP supply, and the president's annual financial disclosure for 2025 reported about $635 million in income from sales of the token. At $1.27, $TRUMP trades roughly 98% below the $75.35 peak it hit days before the January 2025 inauguration.

Noteholders Can Ask for $1B Back on November 30

Trump Media sold $1 billion of convertible senior secured notes in May 2025. These are bonds backed by company assets that can be swapped for shares under certain conditions, and they mature in May 2028. One clause lets holders require the company to buy the notes back at full principal plus accrued interest on November 30, 2026, which could mean repayment demands of up to about $1 billion if most holders use it — a potential obligation that dwarfs the $1.7 million in revenue Trump Media reported for the second quarter. Converting into stock is not an appealing option for most holders, since the notes convert at $34.72 per share and DJT shares hit a record low this week.

In a registration statement filed on November 2, the company said refinancing may be needed and that it could sell Bitcoin or other digital assets if other funding falls short. The disclosure sits in the registration statement for Trump Media's planned merger with fusion energy company TAE Technologies, on which shareholders are scheduled to vote at a special meeting on December 14.

For DJT shareholders, the outcome will decide whether the company keeps any meaningful Bitcoin position. The next quarterly report should show whether this week's coins were derecognized — the accounting term for assets taken off the balance sheet after a sale. For $TRUMP, the November 30 date adds headline risk to an already weak chart. A daily close back above $1.50, with the RSI climbing past 30, would leave room for a relief move toward $1.78, while a close below $1.22 on high volume would bring $1.00 into play.

The scale of the transfer stands out against the token's value. In a single morning, Trump Media moved Bitcoin worth about $343.7 million — close to the roughly $357.8 million that market trackers assign to $TRUMP's entire circulating supply. The company's ties to Crypto.com have also narrowed this year: the two scrapped their planned Cronos treasury company in August, which leaves custody as one of the main remaining links between them.