A longtime Republican strategist says President Donald Trump may personally determine the Republican nominee for president in 2028 and may already have potential successors in mind. According to Bill Kristol, those choices may not include Vice President JD Vance or Sen. Marco Rubio.

The comments describe an unsettled succession question, with Kristol focusing on Trump's preferences and the loyalty of potential candidates rather than presenting a settled Republican field.

Kristol, a Republican strategist and veteran of several presidential administrations, discussed the issue on The Bulwark. He argued that Vance’s prospects could be undermined by more committed Trump loyalists. The discussion was reported by Alternet and cited The Bulwark.

Kristol pointed to the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, where he said Vance received “a mediocre reception” and made an ineffective attempt to energize the crowd before being “ushered off the stage.”

“Trump shows up, hooplah, the whole thing closes with Trump and music, and JD Vance is nowhere to be seen,” Kristol said. “That’s kind of amusing, and I think, incidentally, confirms… it is not clear at all that Donald Trump wants JD Vance to be his successor, or that JD Vance can be his successor.”

Bulwark contributor Tim Miller raised Donald Trump Jr. as an “obvious alternative” to Vance, arguing that Trump Jr. presents a more authentic MAGA identity. Miller said Vance “is a product of venture capital, Peter Thiel world. He is not a genuine populist. It’s all fake.”

Kristol also questioned whether Trump would seek another term himself and identified several possible alternatives. “Are we so sure Trump’s not going to run again?” he asked. “A: I’m not sure of that. B: I’m not sure that he doesn’t try to anoint Trump Jr. And C: Someone like Hegseth.”

“Right now I don’t know who I’d bet on to be the nominee, but this idea that Rubio is second to Vance is ludicrous,” Kristol said. “I think Hegseth is more likely to be the Republican nominee than Rubio. Hegseth is more like Trump. He’s an unbelievably shameless demagogue, but all the idiotic manosphere stuff resonates, I suppose. I mean, he’s losing a war, so who knows. But in Trumpworld, they’re so far removed from reality at this point that who knows.”

Kristol further criticized Vance’s political approach, saying, “Vance is playing politics from 15 years ago.” He described what he characterized as Vance’s strategy: “‘I’m subtly leaking that I was getting briefings that things were going well and weighing in privately with Trump, and then I’ll give a speech and say, well, people will differ on the war, but we need to work together.’ He thinks that that’s enough?”

Kristol said Trump’s central consideration in selecting a successor would be whether that person would protect him and his allies. “Who can he be sure will sustain the grift and not go after him and all of his allies?” Kristol said.

“It’s not just Trump now. We’re now dealing with hundreds, maybe thousands of people in this administration who are unbelievably determined to keep power in 2028. That’s why the election subversion stuff is so serious. Somewhat serious in 2026 but mostly serious as a predicate for ‘28.”

Kristol said Trump’s allies “can’t let the Democrats win” and do not trust people outside their own circle to preserve their power. “Put those two things together, and the idea that we’re going to have a normal ‘democratic’ republican primary is ridiculous,” he said. “Trump is going to have massive thumbs on the scale.”