Republican candidates, already facing an uphill battle because of President Donald Trump's unpopularity, are about to confront new headwinds driven by the president's self-focus, according to MS NOW analyst Zeeshan Aleem. The warning comes against a familiar historical backdrop: the president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm since World War II, and this November all 435 House seats and roughly a third of the Senate are on the ballot.

Citing a report from The Atlantic, Aleem argued that Trump's plan to spend millions of his stockpiled MAGA campaign funds on an advertising effort promoting his own record is the last thing GOP candidates need heading into the midterms.

According to The Atlantic, which cited three people familiar with a recent White House strategy meeting, Trump decided that as Election Day approaches he would spend "hundreds of millions of dollars" promoting himself. In Aleem's assessment, the strategy is yet another example of how Trump's "self-adulation" frequently becomes the source of his biggest strategic mistakes.

The report states that Trump gathered his political advisers to determine how to spend the $400 million in funds available to his super political action committee, MAGA Inc. He reportedly settled on trying to "lean into the Democratic strategy of focusing on himself" and ordered "a series of television advertisements about his own record that will serve as a backdrop to the hundreds of individual House and Senate contests." Super PACs like MAGA Inc. may raise unlimited contributions but are barred by law from coordinating their spending with the campaigns they back, which places the $400 million outside the budgets of the party's congressional campaign committees — the NRCC and NRSC — and the candidates running in those contests.

The Atlantic further notes that Trump wants ad makers to "mine his own on-camera statements" for the commercials, focusing on his tax breaks, the stock market's rise and his failed war on fentanyl, among other subjects.

Aleem pointed out: "There's a great deal of evidence from political scientists demonstrating midterm elections function as a referendum on the president and his management of the economy. Given those trends, the Republican Party is poised to fare poorly in November. Trump's approval ratings are at or near the lowest point of his time in office; even some of his most loyal supporters are wavering. And a big part of this decline is tied to dissatisfaction with the cost of living, exacerbated by Trump's foolish misadventure into Iran. Polls conducted in July indicate that about two-thirds of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy and believe that his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country."

Noting again that the July polls found roughly two-thirds of Americans "disapprove of his handling of the economy," Aleem advised: "At this point, a judicious president would show restraint in their messaging, allowing lawmakers in battleground districts and states to try to distance themselves from the president while making the case to voters."

Describing the 80-year-old president as "indulging in make-believe," Aleem added: "If Trump fills the airwaves with ads about how the midterms are about nothing other than his record, he could easily nullify GOP candidates' attempts to present themselves as independent-minded politicians intent on going to Washington with an agenda distinct from Trump." The open questions heading into November are how much of the $400 million actually reaches the airwaves, which media markets and races the ad buys concentrate on, and whether battleground Republicans embrace the president-centered framing or keep working to localize their contests.