NewsMacroTrump Says 'Stupidity Causes Inflation' and Threatens to Halt Trade With Foreign Countries Over High Interest Rates

Trump Says 'Stupidity Causes Inflation' and Threatens to Halt Trade With Foreign Countries Over High Interest Rates

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, an unexpectedly strong gain, but Trump reacted with frustration, arguing that strong employment does not cause inflation.
  • Economic growth has run at roughly 2% annually during Trump's second term, below the Biden administration's pace and far short of the historic boom Trump promised.
  • The national debt has crossed $40 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% on Friday, reflecting investor concern about inflation and fiscal policy.
  • Trump's economic approval rating stands at 32%, down from 50% ahead of the 2018 midterms, posing political risk for Republicans in November.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is preparing a plan to reduce the debt and deficit, which currently run at about $2 trillion annually.
Trump Says 'Stupidity Causes Inflation' and Threatens to Halt Trade With Foreign Countries Over High Interest Rates

President Donald Trump has spent 20 months promising that America was on the cusp of an economic boom, but Friday's surprisingly positive jobs report ultimately provoked frustration from the president.

The August job numbers might have offered a welcome reprieve after months of sluggish hiring and persistent inflation concerns that have weighed on Trump and his party just two months from Election Day. Instead, speaking from the Oval Office, Trump launched into a grievance session about inflation and interest rates, directing his anger at the financial markets, the Federal Reserve, and U.S. trade partners. He objected to the widely accepted economic notion that the surprise gain of 162,000 jobs in August could contribute to inflationary pressures. Strong employment data are typically watched by the Fed and investors as a signal of economic heat that can keep rates elevated, which is why markets sometimes react negatively to robust jobs figures.

"Success does not cause inflation. Stupidity causes inflation," Trump vented in the Oval Office, declaring it "crazy" that stock markets fell Friday on inflation concerns.

The combination over his second term of a hiring drop-off and higher prices has dogged Trump and his pledge to instantly unleash historic growth. "When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom," he said at an August 2024 rally in North Carolina. But so far, the economy has grown at roughly 2% annually — slower than the gains recorded during the Biden administration.

Trump blamed his inability to deliver stronger growth on higher interest rates on U.S. government debt, saying on social media that America could retaliate by stopping trade with foreign countries. Rates have been climbing in response to persistently high inflation fueled by Trump's tariffs and oil shortages stemming from the Iran war. The national debt has now crossed the daunting threshold of $40 trillion, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.79% on Friday. That benchmark yield influences borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate loans, and its climb reflects investor concern about inflation and the government's fiscal trajectory.

With the promised growth yet to materialize, the president has lost some of the public's trust in his ability to steer the world's largest economy, and his own policies have contributed in part to the inflation and high interest rates he blames on others.

"The administration's credibility on growth, inflation, rates, debt and deficit dynamics have taken a hit given the outsized predictions that are not aligned with economic reality," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM US.

If the Fed did as Trump wanted and cut its benchmark rate so that more money could flow into the U.S. economy, the potential influx of cash could make inflation even worse and only add to his political and economic headaches. But the president disputed this foundational concept of monetary policy, saying Friday that gross domestic product would grow at "12, 13, 14, 15%" if rates were lower, appearing to shrug off inflation risks. U.S. GDP growth of that magnitude would be far outside the modern historical range; annual growth has not exceeded 7.2% in any year since 1984.

"We could have a GDP that would break every single record," Trump said.

The president's approval rating on the economy stood at a lowly 32% in the middle of the summer, according to polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. When Republicans last faced midterm voters in 2018 under Trump, his economic approval rating was 50%. Presidents' parties historically tend to lose ground in midterm elections, making economic sentiment in the run-up to November especially consequential for congressional control.

Trump's threat to cut off foreign trade could endanger growth and further erode his ratings. His recent levying of tariffs against Canada has already become a problem for Republicans in the Maine and Michigan Senate races.

Trump officials say their policies are working as intended. They argue that the development of artificial intelligence will lead to productivity gains that boost growth, that last year's tariffs should ultimately bring more factory work to America, that Trump's tax cuts will create more business investment, and that the administration's efforts to identify fraud will generate savings for taxpayers.

"I expect higher growth," said Christopher Phelan, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "We're doing stuff to make good things happen."

Phelan said recent job gains have been about two times larger than what is needed to match population growth, and he considers it entirely possible that productivity gains could push up overall growth for the next several years — even as he acknowledged that growth alone might not be enough to solve all of the country's financial challenges. Because the costs of Social Security and Medicare are rising faster than revenues, growth alone is unlikely to meaningfully reduce budget deficits.

If U.S. economic growth could exceed 3% annually for the next decade, that would only be enough to stabilize the government's already high debt load, according to an analysis by Ernie Tedeschi, head of economic insights and research at Stripe, the financial technology company.

Tedeschi said he would be "thrilled" if AI could help deliver those kinds of gains for 10 straight years, but history shows that growth of that magnitude from advancements in computers was likely "wildly optimistic."

"We should absolutely not be planning for the optimistic scenario," Tedeschi said.

Up until the president's comments about interest rates on Friday, the Trump administration had spent the past week trying to make voters feel more confident about the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promoted the benefits of stronger growth at the G20 summit for finance ministers in North Carolina, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick did the same as part of G20 meetings about innovation.

Still, Bessent told the AP in an interview that he is also working with White House budget director Russ Vought to announce a plan to "bring down the level of the debt, deficit."

There is political risk in trying to meaningfully reduce an annual budget deficit of roughly $2 trillion that is slated to exceed $3 trillion a decade from now. Lowering the path of budget deficits would likely help with interest rates, but it could bring political pain in the form of spending cuts and tax hikes.

Brusuelas, the RSM US chief economist, stressed that Trump would likely need to make sacrifices to meaningfully address the debt and reassure financial markets.

"We need a period of slower growth in government spending — that includes outright reduction in spending in addition to tax increases that all would reduce deficits and interest rates," he said.

How the Fed responds to inflation pressures at its coming meetings, whether the administration releases the promised debt plan, and how voters weigh the economy in November are the key questions ahead.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.