US President Donald Trump announced that the ongoing conflict with Iran is expected to conclude shortly, a development he suggested would allow gasoline prices to fall back to levels seen before the war began.

According to Trump, American consumers are currently paying elevated fuel prices as part of efforts to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The conflict, which started in February 2026, involves the United States, Israel, and Iran, and has been marked by fluctuating tensions and intermittent ceasefires. Gasoline pump prices largely reflect crude oil costs, and conflicts involving energy-producing regions have historically influenced oil market conditions.

Despite the president's optimistic outlook, the reliability of the source and the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding the conflict suggest the remarks warrant cautious interpretation by market participants.

Market Pricing Shows Cautious Optimism

Trump's statement about the imminent end of the war with Iran points to potential diplomatic progress. Market pricing for a US-Iran deal in 2026 has registered slight increases, reflecting cautious optimism. Current odds on a 2026 US-Iran deal include modest increases in YES probability, a movement consistent with diplomatic resolution scenarios. Prediction markets convert trader expectations into prices, with YES contract values functioning as implied probabilities of the underlying event occurring.

What to Watch

Observers are expected to monitor official diplomatic engagements and statements from key actors, including U.S. negotiator Mike Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Developments in diplomacy or military actions could significantly influence market pricing on the likelihood of a US-Iran deal.

The potential for a comprehensive agreement — potentially involving caps on uranium enrichment or reconstruction funding — remains uncertain and hinges on ongoing negotiations and geopolitical stability.

This article was originally reported by Crypto Briefing.