President Donald Trump has once again pulled back from the brink of a major military escalation against Iran, continuing what has become a recurring pattern in the ongoing conflict. While Trump attributed his latest reversal to appeals from U.S. allies seeking another opportunity for diplomacy, foreign policy experts increasingly see indications that Iran is gaining the strategic upper hand.

Tehran has leveraged its regional proxy networks — what it calls the "Axis of Resistance" — to widen the conflict, most notably through Houthi rebels who continue to threaten shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting vessels attempting to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz. The Red Sea disruptions have already forced major shipping companies to reroute cargo around the southern tip of Africa, adding weeks of transit time and significantly increasing freight costs. Simultaneously, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors that they would become targets in the event of renewed bombardment, a threat given credibility after Iran demonstrated that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defense systems — a capability recallled by the 2019 missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais that briefly knocked out roughly half of the kingdom's production.

"Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray," Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.

Ostovar explained that Iran's objective appears to be prolonging the conflict rather than inflicting maximum damage, exploiting what it perceives as lower political endurance on the opposing side. "So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be," he said. "That is how they see it."

Trump's approval ratings on his handling of the economy have declined alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support eroding even among Republican voters. With midterm elections now just months away and gasoline prices rising again, Tehran appears to find leverage in the U.S. political calendar.

An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to capitalize on Trump's political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if diplomatic negotiations collapse.

That aggressive posture was evident last week when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases, described by Central Command as an "attempted surprise attack." Trump's continued restraint stands in contrast to Iran having crossed his stated red line for resuming all-out war after killing U.S. troops in Jordan last month.

The United States still maintains significant military assets in the region and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iran that is inflicting economic damage. However, the U.S. and its allies have severely depleted interceptor stockpiles needed to repel Iranian attacks, leaving critical energy infrastructure more exposed. The drawdown reflects a broader strain on Western munitions inventories that has persisted since the Ukraine war dramatically increased demand for air defense systems and precision munitions across multiple theaters.

Global energy markets have also drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products sharply, with analysts warning that "tank bottoms" — the point at which stored supplies run dangerously low — are imminent unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon. Roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption normally passes through the strait on any given day, meaning a prolonged closure would have few historical precedents in scale.

"Last night's events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence," Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X. "It has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington's calculations."

Despite suffering heavy losses at the outset of the war, Iran has since demonstrated its capacity to hold the global economy hostage by threatening maritime chokepoints and Gulf neighbors, Citrinowicz added.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Trump on Saturday to express concern over plans for massive new U.S. strikes on Iran, sources told Axios. The kingdom's de facto ruler reportedly urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the attacks, days after the Saudi defense minister conveyed a similar message.

"President Trump may still decide to order military action. But the fact that Washington continues to hesitate suggests that it recognizes the risks of escalation and is not convinced that a broader campaign would compel Iran to back down," Citrinowicz wrote.