President Trump indicated on Sunday that he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran continue building rather than order a fresh round of military strikes, even as Tehran continues to defy Washington's demands. Speaking in a brief interview with Axios, Trump described his approach as deliberately restrained: "we are low keying it." The comments mark a notable shift from just a week earlier, when Trump was reportedly close to ordering a return to major combat operations.

Trump framed the standoff as a waiting game. He said Iran is in very bad shape economically, unable to pay its own troops, and that the US naval blockade has deepened that crisis. With oil trading just above 75 dollars a barrel, he added that American consumers are feeling less pain from the conflict, reducing the urgency to escalate. Asked about the standoff, Trump likened it to a long-running contest that will eventually resolve in Washington's favour.

The remarks came as a US-brokered agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, negotiated among Iran, Oman, and the US, appeared to stall after mediators had expected an announcement earlier in the week. Oman has served as a recurring intermediary between Washington and Tehran, leveraging its longstanding neutral diplomatic channels. Iran's Supreme National Security Council instead issued a fresh list of conditions on Saturday, including a demand that the US never threaten or insult Iran, a permanent end to hostilities against Iran and its regional allies, a full withdrawal of naval forces from the area, and calls for war compensation and sanctions relief.

US officials say the new demands reflect a widening rift inside the Iranian regime. President Masoud Pezeshkian's camp is reportedly pushing for a deal to avert economic collapse, while IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi's faction resists any concessions. The internal power struggle in Tehran is emerging as the more decisive variable for oil prices than signals coming out of Washington. If the Pezeshkian camp gains ground and a Strait of Hormuz deal is eventually signed, the likely path is toward softer prices and a lower geopolitical risk premium. Conversely, if IRGC hardliners under Vahidi hold sway and the stalemate drags on or hardens into fresh confrontation, prices would skew firmer, given that volumes are still moving through the strait under informal, revocable arrangements rather than a settled agreement.

Despite the impasse, roughly 8 million barrels a day continue moving through the strait's southern lane under informal coordination with the US military, a flow Washington is looking to expand in the absence of a formal agreement. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, meaning any sustained disruption would reverberate well beyond US gasoline prices. Trump's optimistic framing — pointing to sub-80 dollar oil and easing consumer pain — reads as an attempt to project reassurance rather than a clear signal that risk has actually receded.

Trump is choosing to wait Iran out economically rather than pull the trigger again, even as Tehran raises the price of reopening the strait and its own leadership splits over what to do next. Vice President Vance described the standoff as still in its middle stages, with diplomatic, economic, and military tools all in play as the administration weighs its next move.